Monday, December 29, 2008

NFL-Examing My Preseason Prognostication

The NFL Regular Season has ended, and that means I need to re-examine my Preseason Picks. I have a feeling I'll be in for some terrible discoveries, but who knows. Perhaps I did well. Nah...who am I kidding?? My pre-season picks actually weren't bad, outdoing my week-to-week picks. The record was 152-102-1, compared to my week-to-week 147-107-1. Anyway, let's just get into it.

AFC
EAST
Miami (11-5, projected 7-9, 3rd in East) I predicted a 6 game improvement in Tony Sparano's first season in Miami, and, I'd probably do it about the same way again. There was no way to tell that Chad Pennington would have such a good season or that the Wildcat would become a game breaker for the playoff bound Dolphins. Congrats on a great season.

New England (11-5, 12-4, 1st) If I could have foretold that Tom Brady would go down 7 minutes into the season, I never would have thought they'd go 11-5, let alone 12-4. As is, Matt Cassel had a great season, and it's a shame they won't have a chance to go to the playoffs because I think they are one of the three most impressive teams of the second half of the season.

New York Jets (9-7, 9-7, 2nd) I knew the Jets would improve with Brett Favre at the helm, and after they knocked off the Titans, I thought I underestimated them. Turns out I was just right. Favre reverted to pre-2007 form, and the Jets defense fell to pieces.

Buffalo Bills (7-9, 4-12, 4th) The Bills got off to a rapid start, making me look like a complete fool. Then, just as quickly, they turned into the big joke I thought they would be. Some changes should be in store for the boys of Orchard Park.

North
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4, 9-7, 1st) I knew they'd win the North, but it would seem I vastly underestimated the North. Pittsburgh ended up 3 games better than I expected by winning the games they were supposed to all season.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5, 4-12, 3rd) One of my biggest misses of the season. At the beginning of the year, I felt like the Ravens defense was no longer the force it was in previous years. Turns out, I was very very wrong. The defense was dynamite, Joe Flacco was great, and the Ravens will be a team to be feared in the playoffs.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1, 2-14, 4th) I was looking right on the money until the Bengals "caught fire" and won their final 3 games. It may have been just enough for the idiotic Mike Brown to keep things the same and enter 2009 with another pathetic team built to lose.

Cleveland Browns (4-12, 8-8, 2nd) The Browns fooled a large group of people at the beginning of the season, including myself. I didn't forecast them to win the division like some did, but I still gave them 4 more wins than they would earn themselves. It's rebuilding time again in the Land of Cleve.

South
Tennessee Titans (13-3, 7-9, 4th) When the Titans finished last season, I saw Vince Young as a quarterback who just wasn't getting it, and the Titans as an overachieving bunch that would drop back to earth in 2008. What I didn't see was Chris Johnson rushing for over 1,000 yards as a rookie, LenDale White being a scoring machine and Kerry Collins leading the Titans to the number one seed in the playoffs. I'm still not a believer though. As well as the Titans have played this season, I think they hit their prime too early and won't be able to beat the Colts, Ravens, or Steelers, all of which should make the Divisional Round.

Indianapolis Colts (12-4, 11-5, 2nd) I was close in terms of final record, but I never would have predicted the way it was done. After fumbling out to a 3-4 start, a finally healthy Peyton Manning put his team on his back, and the team that has won 9 straight has suddenly become very dangerous now that the playoffs have arrived.

Houston Texans (8-8, 9-7, 3rd) Well, I felt like this would be the year the Texans became relevant, and, had Matt Schaub stayed healthy all season, I probably would've been right. Some poor late game play on the part of Sage Rosenfels, highlighted by his fumble and interception leading to a 21-point turnaround with under 5 minutes remaining in a 4 point loss to Indy moved Houston to 8-8 instead of the winning record they deserved. Watch out, though. Schaub showed some real potential, Andre Johnson is a Pro Bowl receiver and Steve Slaton had a heck of a rookie year.

Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4, 5-11, 1st) I've been duped. And so was nearly every other sports prognosticator, including my esteemed colleague Matt Barnes. The efficiency of David Garrard and the running of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew foretold great things to come. Unfortunately, the Jags' line fell apart, the running backs stalled, and Garrard became not-so-efficient. This ranks with the Ravens as one of my worst calls of the year, especially because I predicted them to make the Final Four of the NFL season.

West
San Diego Chargers (15-1, 8-8, 1st) To predict a team to go 15-1 was probably a bad idea, especially because it's a Norv Turner coached team. They were 7 games worse than I predicted, LT was a shell of his former self basically until Week 17 against Denver, and last year's phenomenon cornerback Antonio Cromartie had an historically bad season. BUT...my Super Bowl Champs still qualified for the Super Bowl Tournament, so not all is lost. Can they really knock off anyone else in the field, let alone Indy in the Wild Card round?? Doubtful.

Denver Broncos (8-8, 10-6, 2nd) I thought Jay Cutler would continue his play of 2007 with an even better season in 2008, and, while he did break the Broncos' mark for passing yardage, he also threw 4 interceptions in the redzone, something he had never done before this season. All in all, the Denver D was a joke, and that was their downfall.

Oakland Raiders (6-10, 5-11, 3rd) I foresaw a great turnaround for the downtrodden Raiders in 2008..."great" being a relative term of course. With a late season surge that happened. Not how I thought though. I thought that Darren McFadden and Michael Bush would form a rushing tandem that could kill opposing defenses. That didn't exactly happen, but JaMarcus Russell seems to have actually developed some toward the end of the year. It will be interesting to see what 2009 holds for Da Raidas.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-14, 5-11, 4th) Well, I predicted the 1-4 finish of the AFC's Western Division, but it would seem I didn't guess any of the records correctly. Oh well. Larry Johnson was even worse than I assumed he would be, and the Chiefs struggled all season to even compete. Tyler Thigpen did an admirable job at quarterback, but I don't see great things in the near future for the Chiefs.


NFC
East
New York Giants (12-4, 9-7, 4th) I was only 3 games off with the G-Men, but, that was last place in what I (and everyone else) assumed would be a completely stacked NFC East. The defending Super Bowl Champs really got things done in the 2007 post-season with a ferocious defensive line. I knew Justin Tuck would be a force, but with Michael Strahan retiring and Osi Umenyiora getting a season-ending injury, I didn't think New York could repeat. Turns out, the d-line is just as good as ever, and the Earth, Wind, and Fire running game was fantastic. They'll be tough to beat.

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1, 11-5, 2nd) I foresaw great things from the Eagles this season, and they looked like a huge disappointment in a tie with the Bengals and a dismantling at the hands of the Ravens. They put things together, though, after Donovan McNabb got done being benched and Brian Westbrook got back on the field, and they ended up almost as good as I predicted. Anybody want to play this team right now?? I doubt it.

Dallas Cowboys (11-5, 9-7, 1st) They're only two games worse than my prediction, but those two games make this one of the most disappointing teams of 2008, along with the Jags. This team is in need of a total revamp because what they're doing right now just isn't working. Also, how long do we give Tony Romo before we can actually label him as a failure in big games??

Washington Redskins (10-6, 8-8, 3rd) Jason Campbell really impressed me last season, and I felt that he, Clinton Portis and Chris Cooley would wreak havoc on opposing teams in 2008. That happened as they started 6-2, but in losing 6 of the last 8, they showed who they really were, a .500 team.

North
Minnesota Vikings (10-6, 11-5, 1st) I hated picking them to finish first in the North to start the year, I hated picking them to play in the Super Bowl, and I hate them in general. But...the Vikings won 7-of-9 to finish the season and wrapped up the NFC North title. This team needs two things before it will actually challenge for a championship...a competent quarterback (Hello?? Is this Matt Cassel?? Would you like to play with Adrian Peterson??), and Adrian Peterson to stop fumbling the football. 10 fumbles in one season?? An MVP doesn't do that.

Chicago Bears (9-7, 2-14, 4th) So, I'll take the credit. This was a terrible call on my part. As bad as Da Bears were last season only a year after being in the Super Bowl, could only get worse in my opinion. 2-14 worse?? That was pushing it. Kyle Orton actually played well, the Bears Defense got things back together, and this was a team that was in it until the very end.

Green Bay Packers (6-10, 10-6, 2nd) Being a Packers fan, this team was a huge heartbreak all season. This is all you need to know about the Pack in 2008...They lost 10 games...7 of those losses were by 4 or less points...6 of those 7 losses were lost either in the final 3 minutes of the game or in overtime. That's six games that the Packers couldn't close out. This is a talented team, but 3 things held them back. They couldn't close a game, they couldn't stop the run, and Aaron Rodgers, despite a fantastic season, had a penchant for game-clinching interceptions after the defense lost him the lead. Fix those three things and this team can compete with anyone.

Detroit Lions (0-16, 3-13, 3rd) Well, what can be said about the first 0-16?? Jon Kitna guaranteed 10 wins again this year, and I was smart enough not to believe it, but even I couldn't have foreseen an 0-16 campaign. Motown better hope the new coach can get some work done in 2009. Build around Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson...as for everyone else...who cares??

South
Carolina Panthers (12-4, 10-6, 2nd) I predicted Jake Delhomme would make a triumphant return to the big stage and Jon Stewart would be a hoss in his first season in the NFL. Stewart was great, Delhomme was average. Fortunately for the Falcons, there was DeAngelo Williams. The second year man out of Memphis scored 18 touchdowns, and turned it up when the Panthers needed it most. If the rushing duo can keep up what they're currently doing, they may not be able to be stopped.

Atlanta Falcons (11-5, 7-9, 4th) In probably the best division in football top to bottom this season, I predicted they'd improve, just not the drastic way in which they did. My thinking was that Michael Turner would win them more games than they won last season, but I didn't foresee the development of Matt Ryan. This team is a blessing for Atlanta and embattled owner Arthur Blank. I wouldn't be surprised to see them stomp the Cardinals this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7, 9-7 3rd) There were only two teams I picked completely correct in terms of record, and both, coincidentally, went 9-7. The Bucs are another disappointment in 2008. After starting 9-3, they went 0-for-December for the second year in a row, and if Jon Gruden's job isn't on the line, it should be after not winning a playoff game since his Super Bowl Championship 7 years ago.

New Orleans Saints (8-8, 10-6, 1st) They were only 2 games worse than I predicted, yet went from first to last. It wasn't because of Drew Brees. The diminuitive passer came 15 yards short of Dan Marino's seaon passing record, recording over 5,000 yards through the air. The Saints couldn't come up with any running game, though, and their vertical pass defense was atrocious. Get a power rusher and some quick defensive backs, and this is a team to give a second look to.

West
Arizona Cardinals (9-7, 3-13, 3rd) Every year people say that the Cardinals are going to turn it around, and every year I fall for it. This season, though, I didn't, and wouldn't you know it, I was wrong. Kurt Warner had a renaissance, much-aided by the unbelievable Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Give those two a real team, and they'd be about unbeatable. This team, on the other hand, packed it in already, and I'd be surprised if they win Sunday against Atlanta.

San Francisco 49ers (7-9, 2-14, 4th) This division just killed me. I couldn't really make an accurate prediction for any team. All I do know is that this team played hard for Mike Singletary, and I hope, for his sake, they continue to do that now that he has a five-year contract to his name.

Seattle Seahawks (4-12, 12-4, 1st) Statistically speaking, this was my biggest miss of the season. I thought, like almost every other season, this would be the only competitive team in the West. Turns out, they were terrible and gave Mike Holmgren a pretty pathetic swan song. The cupboard isn't bare, but I doubt they'll compete next season.

St. Louis Rams (2-14, 4-12, 2nd) It says a lot about what I thought about this division, considering I picked a 4-12 team to finish second. So, I was a little harsh. I wasn't far off on the Rams though. They have fallen hard since "The Greatest Show on Turf", and, while Steven Jackson is an incredible talent, he can't stay healthy long enough to get this team some wins.


Playoff Seeds
AFC
1. Tennessee-The Titans jumped out to an 11-0 start, then lost 3-of-5 to finish, though only one of those losses really had meaning. Injuries and fatigue seems to be getting to the Titans, and they had better hope both of those can be fixed with their upcoming two week break.

2. Pittsburgh-The Steelers have one of the most ferocious defenses in NFL history, and teams had better hope to be tough if they want to compete. Big Ben Roethlisberger, like his defense, is tough as nails, but the problem is that he has to prove it repeatedly because he has to get hit all the time. Hopefully he can recover from Sunday's concussion for their Divisional Round.

3. Miami-The Dolphins are one of the two biggest surprises in the NFL this season (along with the Falcons), and many will probably assume they'll fall to the Ravens in the Wild Card Round, because they're "just happy to be there". I, though, think the game will be more competitive than the 27-13 Ravens win in Miami earlier in the year.

4. San Diego-The Chargers have their work cut out for them, but they have picked the perfect time in the season to hit their prime. They're going to need it with Peyton's boys coming to San Diego for a rematch of Indy's 23-20 last second win a few weeks ago. A lot of this game will come down to the status of LT, who strained his groin late against Denver.

5. Indianapolis-Peyton Manning's knee injury was much more serious than anyone let on (Tiger Woods-esque are we??), and he didn't feel fully healthy until Week 8. So what has he done since he finally felt like himself again?? Won every single game.

6. Baltimore-When this is the 6th seed in the playoffs, you know it's a stacked field. I could see any of these six having a shot at the Super Bowl, and even with rookie Joe Flacco at the helm, I would rank Baltimore as the 3rd best shot, behind Indy and Pittsburgh. Flacco has developed nicely, and that defense, led by Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, has been outstanding.


NFC
1. New York-The Giants have the icy Meadowlands on their side, which should bode well, since the Eagles are the only other team in the field used to playing in the cold. The biggest thing for the G-Men, though, will be the health of Brandon Jacobs. If they lose their 265 pound running back, they lose a lot of their offensive swagger, even with Derrick Ward rushing for over 1,000 yards.

2. Carolina-Carolina hasn't been to the playoffs since their Super Bowl loss to the Pats, but their running game is built for postseason success. Another matchup between the Giants and Panthers could be something special.

3. Minnesota-The Vikes started off 3-4, but won 7-of-9 to go 10-6 and wrap up the NFC North. Tarvaris Jackson was benched, then reinstated, the Williamses were suspended then re-instated, then Pat Williams broke his scapula, Adrian Peterson looked like an MVP rusher but fumbled 10 times. What I'm trying to say is, this is an unpredictable team, and I have no idea what to expect from them.

4. Arizona-The Cards have "just happy to be here" written all over them, and I expect nothing out of them in the playoffs. Congrats to Boldin and Fitzgerald though for easily being the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL.

5. Atlanta-The Falcons are looking great, and Matt Ryan has passed everyone's expectations. If they want to advance in the playoffs, though, it's going to lie on the legs of Michael "The Burner" Turner.

6. Philadelphia-The Eagles were left for dead, and I think their rise to the playoffs has more to do with the return of Brian Westbrook than the awakening of Donovan McNabb. What it comes down to, though, is that this is a suddenly dangerous team playing with house money, and that's nothing to turn your nose up at.


Playoff Predictions
Wild Card
AFC
Indianapolis-38, San Diego-24
Baltimore-24, Miami-14
NFC
Atlanta-35, Arizona-17
Minnesota-28, Philadelphia-24
Divisional
AFC
Baltimore-17, Tennessee-14
Indianapolis-21, Pittsburgh-20
NFC
New York-28, Minnesota-10
Carolina-35, Atlanta-28
Championship
AFC
Indianapolis-17, Baltimore-7
NFC
Carolina-23, New York-21
Super Bowl
Indianapolis-34, Carolina-24


It looks like my predictions for the year weren't fantastic, considering I guessed only one full division and 10 out of 32 teams correctly in terms of placement, including only 2 teams with the correct record. My playoff teams weren't good either. In the AFC, I was correct with San Diego, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, and in the NFC, Minnesota and Philadelphia. Let's hope my playoff predictions go a little better. It's been fun

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Week 17 Picks-It's All Over

Well, this is the last week of the regular season, and it's been a less than stellar season picking games here at Legends of Friday Night. Alas, we must finish the season. But...for my ATS picks, I did something a little different this week. I've given way to my assistant/girlfriend Kristi to do some celebrity picks this week. The only problem?? I somehow messed up my saved messages folder on Webmail so that it didn't save her email, and the King of Arguments only posted picks, not comments, so all I have for you is her picks, not her comments. Then, in straight up picks, I went a not so good 8-8 last week to bring my season record to 134-104-1. My pre-season picks record is now 145-93-1 after my first losing effort of the year, at 7-9. So, here are Kristi's against the spread picks, and my own straight up picks. Giddy Up!

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 28TH

St. Louis @ Atlanta (-15)
The Pick: St.Louis (ATS) Atlanta (Straight Up)

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-10.5)
The Pick: Cleveland (ATS) Pittsburgh (Straight Up)

New England (-6.5) @ Buffalo
The Pick: New England

Kansas City @ Cincinnati (-3)
The Pick: Cincinnati

Detroit @ Green Bay (-9)
The Pick: Green Bay

Chicago (-1.5) @ Houston
The Pick: Houston (ATS) Chicago (Straight Up)

Tennessee (-3) @ Indianapolis
The Pick: Tennessee (ATS) Indianapolis (Straight Up)

New York Giants @ Minnesota (-6.5)
The Pick: New York Giants (ATS) Minnesota (Straight Up)

Carolina (-3) @ New Orleans
The Pick: Carolina

Oakland @ Tampa Bay (-13)
The Pick: Tampa Bay

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-1.5)
The Pick: Dallas

Jacksonville @ Baltimore (-12.5)
The Pick: Baltimore

Miami @ New York Jets (-2.5)
The Pick: Miami

Seattle @ Arizona (-6)
The Pick: Arizona

Washington @ San Francisco (-3)
The Pick: Washington (ATS) San Francisco (Straight Up)

Denver @ San Diego (-8.5)
The Pick: San Diego

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Week 16-NFL Picks...Do You Believe in Miracles??

Last week, I took to mindlessly picking games, and it worked!! I went 13-3 against the spread and 10-6 overall. So, we'll keep it going. Here's this week's way of picking the games. I'm going to compare this year's records of the competing coaches' alma maters. Best record wins. Also, to make up for quality of competition, one win will turn into a loss for FCS teams, and for D-2 and below, it will be two wins. If the straight up winner and ATS winner can be different teams, I'll take the longest tenured player on each team, and look at their alma maters. Whoever's alma mater has existed the longest will win the game. So, even if you think I’m nuts, you’ll at least learn something…whether it be where certain coaches are from, who the oldest guys on teams are, or how long certain universities have been around. In terms of straight up picks, I'm now 126-96-1 on the year, and my preseason picks are 12 games better, 138-84-1. I need to go 39-4 and 26-16 the rest of the way to beat last year's record. Here goes!! Giddy up!!

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18TH

Indianapolis (-6) @ Jacksonville
The Pick: Indianapolis
Starting off, I didn't decide to do this until after this pick was due, so I just went with Indy. Let's see how it would have worked out. Tony Dungy was a star at Minnesota which was a much-improved 7-5 this year, but the Jags' Jack Del Rio went to USC, which is 11-1. Under that, I should have picked the Jags. Great start to the week.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 20TH

Baltimore @ Dallas (-4.5)
The Pick: Dallas
Baltimore's John Harbaugh starred at Miami of Ohio, where the woeful Redhawks went 2-10. Wade "Don't care what goes on, as long as I get paid" Phillips, meanwhile, played at Houston, which is 7-5 at the time. The Cowboys take the hard fought match-up of playoff hopefuls.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 21ST

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (-3)
The Pick: Cleveland
Most people probably don't know that "Soon to be Starvin" Marvin Lewis was a Bengal long before taking residence in Cincinnati. Marvin was an Idaho State Bengal in college. Another fact some may not know. The last job of the "Voice of the Bobcats", Russ Eisenstein, was with ISU. Crazy. Anyway, the Bengals were 1-11 this year in FCS action, translating to 0-12 with quality of competition. Can Romeo Crennel find a way to blow it against a defeated team?? I could see it. Alas, he didn't this time. Rome went to Western Kentucky, where the independent Hilltoppers finished a terrible 2-10. Two pitiful college records to go with two pitiful NFL records, but Cleveland wins.

New Orleans (-6.5) @ Detroit
The Pick: Detroit (ATS) New Orleans (Straight Up)
New Orleans' Sean Payton was a 10,000 yard passer at Eastern Illinois (Maybe this should be the "Cradle of Coaches" [more on that later]) who went an adjusted 4-8 this season. Detroit's Rod Marinelli seems to me like an Army man, and it turns out, he did do a tour in Vietnam. He didn't play at West Point, though. He played 2 years at Utah and 2 at California Lutheran, so we'll take the Utes' first six games (6-0) and the Lutes' (actually they're the Kingsmen) second six (1-5) for a total of 7-5. That means Detroit covers. So we go to the other tie breaker. New Orleans' longest tenured player is 16 year man Mark Brunell out of Washington. And this is even better than I thought!! We have an Apple Cup showdown! Detroit has 17 year man, Jason Hanson out of Wazzu, Washington State. These guys played college ball against each other, and now the age of their schools will decide the game. Washington is 147 years old, while State is only 116 years old. Detroit covers, but the Saints win to keep the Lionesses defeated on the year.

Miami (-4) @ Kansas City
The Pick: Kansas City (ATS) Miami (Straight Up)
Herm Edwards played 2 years at Cal, one at Monterey Peninsula JC, and one at San Diego State. Cal’s first six games give you 4-2, but the Lobos didn’t list their results, so they get an 0-3, and the Spartans finished 1 for their last 3, for a total of 5-7. How about Tony Sparano?? He attended the University of New Haven, and it turns out, the Chargers played club ball this year, and didn’t list their results. That gives Sparano an 0-12, meaning KC covers. Who will win, though?? Nose Tackle Jason Ferguson of Miami is in his 12th year out of Georgia, which is a whopping 223 years old. KC has UCLA’s Donnie Edwards. The Bruins have only been around for 91 years. Miami, in its usual way, will squeak out another one.

Pittsburgh (-1) @ Tennessee
The Pick: Tennessee
The Steelers’ Mike Tomlin is a grad of William and Mary, who went an adjusted 6-5. Jeff Fisher, though, is a USC boy, so his 11-1 lifts the Titans to victory, securing the number one seed in the AFC

Arizona @ New England (-8)
The Pick: Arizona (ATS) New England (Straight Up)
Ken Whisenhunt played ball at Georgia Tech, and the Ramblin’ Wreck and triple option led the Jackets to a 9-3 record. Bill Belichick, meanwhile, played at Wesleyan. The Cards went an adjusted 0-9, so the Arizona Cards are looking good against the Pats. Arizona’s longest tenured player is Bryan Robinson, a nose tackle from Fresno State. New England’s oldest is USC’s own Junior Seau. The Pats, like the Fins, will win close because USC has been around 128 years to Fresno’s 97.

San Diego @ Tampa Bay (-3)
The Pick: San Diego
Norv “Not the Burner” Turner went to Oregon, home of the 9-3 Ducks. As for Chucky Gruden?? He was a quarterback for the Dayton Flyers, who, with an adjusted 8-4, falling just short of Norv’s boys in San Diego. Can the Bucs pull out a 1 or 2 point win, though?? Turns out, no, and by the slimmest of margins. Tampa has 3-14 year guys, but Joey Galloway of Ohio State is the oldest. For San Diego, long snapper David Binn went to California. Turns out, the Golden Bears beat out the Bucks 139-138, and the Bucks and Bucs lose out in the end.

San Francisco (-5.5) @ St. Louis
The Pick: St. Louis
Mike Singletary went to Baylor, who had a less-than-banner 3-9 season. Jim Haslett, meanwhile, went to Indiana University…of Pennsylvania. The Crimson Hawks were an adjusted 7-4, a winner in this game. As for the actual game?? St. Louis’ Trent Green went to Indiana University…of Indiana, and Isaac Bruce of the Niners (sounds wrong doesn’t it?) went to Memphis. Well, St. Louis is going to take the win because Indiana beats Memphis 188-96.

Atlanta @ Minnesota (-3)
The Pick: Minnesota
Mike Smith attended East Tennessee State University, the same as my aunt and cousin. Unfortunately, the Bucs no longer have football, so he gets an 0-12. Brad Childress, on the other hand, Brad Childress is our second Eastern Illinois head coach, but unlike Sean Payton, the 4-8 pulls out a win for his team.

Philadelphia (-4.5) @ Washington
The Pick: Philadelphia
Andy Reid is from BYU, who is 10-2, and Jim Zorn went to Cal Poly Pomona. Unfortunately for Zorn, the Broncos don’t field a football team anymore, so Philly takes the win, keeping themselves alive with the Atlanta loss.

Buffalo @ Denver (-7)
The Pick: Buffalo (ATS) Denver (Straight Up)
Dick Jauron is an Ivy League man, attending Yale in his college days. The Bulldogs finished an even 5-5 with adjustment. Mike Shanahan is our third head man from Eastern Illinois, and the 4-8 isn’t enough to win this time. Buffalo makes it close, but can they win?? The Bills’ longest tenured man is Jason Whittle from Missouri State. For the Broncs, it’s not surprise that it’s center Tom Nalen, out of Boston College. BC is 145 years old, and the Bears have been around for only 103. Denver wins a squeaker.

Houston (-7) @ Oakland
The Pick: Houston
Houston native Gary Kubiak won me a big one last week. Let’s see what his 4-8 Aggies of Texas A&M can do for me this week. Answer?? Just enough. Tom Cable went to Idaho, and the Vandals finished a woeful 2-10 in the competitive WAC. Houston takes it comfortably.

New York Jets (-5) @ Seattle
The Pick Seattle
Eric Mangini, like his former mentor Bill Belichick, gets an 0-9 from his alma mater, Wesleyan. Mike Holmgren, meanwhile, was a quarterback at USC, so he gets 11-1 and a comfortable cover. Can the ‘Hawks knock Favre and the Jets out of the AFC East race, though?? Well, Favre has a little to say about it. He’s the longest tenured Jet, and his Southern Miss Golden Eagles have been around for 98 years. For the ‘Hawks, the oldest guy is Chris Gray from Auburn. The Tigers take the win and so does Seattle, 152-98.

Carolina @ New York Giants (-3)
The Pick: Carolina
John Fox was once a teammate of Herm Edwards at San Diego State. He gets the whole season’s worth of games from the Spartans instead of just the last 3, so his record is 2-10. Tom Coughlin, meanwhile, played in the backfield with Larry Csonka at Syracuse. The Orangemen pull out a close Giants’ win with a 3-9 record.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 22ND

Green Bay @ Chicago (-4)
The Pick: Chicago
Mike McCarthy went to tiny Baker University in Kansas, where the Wildcats finished an adjusted 6-6. Lovie Smith went to Tulsa, though, who was ranked for the first time in about 60 years and finished 9-3. Bears win, guaranteeing the Pack, not only their second losing record since ’92, but also their second double-digit loss season in the same period.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

NFL Week 15- The Picks Are Getting Desperate

Alright. Because I suck, we at Legends of Friday Night are going to do something a little different this week. When I played high school football, my number was 84, and it has since been one of my 3 favorite numbers. So...this week, I'm going to look at the number 84's on both teams and pick the team that has the more productive 84. Then, in a case where it could be a different pick between ATS and Straight Up, I'll use the longer tenured of the number 51's, since 51 was my number in Midget Football. So...here goes.
Wait. Also...I have no idea how Barnes and I compare because some games got left out in our running tally. All I know is that I am 116-90-1 right now, and I'm sure he's a good deal better. Last year I finished 165-101, meaning I'd have to go 49-10 the rest of the way in order to better last year's record. That's going to be nearly impossible. The even more depressing part...I picked every game before the season started, and those are 124-82-1, 8 games better than my current clip.
Anyway...on with the picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11TH

New Orleans @ Chicago (-3)
The Pick: Chicago
Chicago-Brandon Rideau-one game played, no numbers of any kind
New Orleans-No number 84
You've got to be kidding me. The winner in this one is the player who has made one appearance and doesn't have a catch or a run or any yards of any kind. We're off to quite the start.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 14TH

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-3)
The Pick: Atlanta
Tampa Bay-Joey Galloway-7 games, 2 starts, 12 rec, 134 yds, 11.2 ypc, 0 TD
Atlanta-Roddy White-13 games, 12 starts, 78 rec, 1249 yds, 16.0 ypc, 6 TD
Well, I don't think there's any question here. White may be headed for the Pro Bowl, while the former Buckeye, Galloway, is barely in the league.

San Francisco @ Miami (-6.5)
The Pick: San Francisco
San Francisco-Josh Morgan-9 games, 1 start, 15 rec, 214 yds, 14.3 ypc, 2 TD
Miami-No number 84
Another bad number 84 strikes again. And...we go to the number 51 clause. And we have...Miami's Akin Ayodele having 7 years, and San Fran's Takeo Spikes with 11 years. San Fran not only covers, they win!!

Seattle (-3) @ St. Louis
The Pick: Seattle
Seattle-Bobby Engram-10 games, 8 starts, 32 rec, 328 yds, 10.3 ypc, 0 TD
St. Louis-Randy McMichael-4 games, 4 starts, 11 rec, 139 yds, 12.6 ypc, 0 TD
Well, neither guy has really played much this season, but Engram gets the edge and so do the Seahawks

Washington (-6.5) @ Cincinnati
The Pick: Cincinnati (ATS), Washington (Straight Up)
Washington-No number 84
Cincinnati-TJ Whosyourmama, 13 games, 13 starts, 89 rec, 885 yds, 9.9 ypc, 4 TD
The 'Skins have no 84, but it'd be tough for anyone to beat unhappy TJ anyway. And now...heading to the number 51 rule, Alfred Fincher, the Skins Lineback, has 4 years, and Corey Mays, the 'Backer from Notre Dame only has 3. Cinci covers, Skins win.

Tennessee (-3) @ Houston
The Pick: Houston
Tennessee-No Number 84
Houston-No Number 84
My God. Neither team has a number 84?!? What do we do?!? Well, says I, I guess we move on to my second favorite number, and that would be 7.
So, we'll make it, the youngest number 7. Turns out neither team has a number 7 either. Well, this is just getting annoying.
Thought number 3 was to see which team beat the Packers by more, but both were 3 point games.
So, tie breaker number 4 should be...should be...which coach is from closest to Rawson, OH, where I'm from. Jeff Fisher of the Titans is from Culver City, CA, a mere 33 hours and 49 minutes from my house. Gary Kubiak, on the other hand, is from Houston, which is 19 hours and 12 minutes from my place. Therefore, the pick is Houston.
So now, we move on to the number 51 tiebreaker, for the game's winner. Houston's Chaun Thompson has been in the league for 6 years and Tennessee's 51 doesn't exist. Can the Texans pull off the upset?? Well...the numbers, however strange they may be, say yes.

Detroit @ Indianapolis (-17)
The Pick: Detroit
Detroit-Shaun McDonald-12 games, 7 starts, 35 rec, 332 yds, 9.5 ypc, 1 TD
Indianapolis-Jacob Tamme-9 games, 0 starts, 1 rec, 6 yds, 6.0 ypc, 0 TD
The Lions cover the spread. What does the rule of 51 say about the outcome?? Indy has no 51, and Detroit has Dominic Raiola, who has played for 8 years, even though he's a bad, bad dude. Whatever. The numbers say Detroit gets off the schneid this week. Boy do I feel like this numbers game is going a bad direction right now.

Green Bay (-2) @ Jacksonville
The Pick: Green Bay
Green Bay-Tory Humphrey-13 games, 5 starts, 10 rec, 148 yds, 14.8 ypc, 0 TD
Jacksonville-Troy Williamson-5 games, 1 start, 4 rec, 27 yds, 6.8 ypc, 1 TD
Packers win. Hooray!!

San Diego (-5) @ Kansas City
The Pick: San Diego
San Diego-Craig Davis-4 games, 0 starts, 4 rec, 59 yds, 14.8 ypc, 0 TD
Kansas City-No number 84
Wow. This is truly as pathetic as both of these teams have been. Dumb.

Buffalo @ New York Jets (-7)
The Pick: Buffalo
Buffalo-Robert Royal-12 games, 7 starts, 29 rec, 308 yds, 10.6 ypc, 1 TD
New York Jets-No Number 84
Well...I wouldn't have gone this direction, but maybe the number gods know more than I do. What does the rule of 51 have to say?? Buffalo has second year man, Paul Posluszny of Penn State, and the Jet have no one. Damn you Jets. Well...just cause I'm picking them doesn't mean I can't do my weekly, The ship is sinking in Buffalo!!!

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-2)
The Pick: Baltimore
Pittsburgh-No Number 84
Baltimore-Edgar Jones-5 games, 0 starts, no numbers whatsoever
Just as in the New Orleans-Chicago game, Baltimore wins it with a guy who has no numbers on the year. The AFC North is heating up!!!

Denver @ Carolina (-7.5)
The Pick: Carolina
Denver-No Number 84-damn you Javon Walker
Carolina-Mark Jones-13 games, 0 starts, 2 rec, 32 yds, 16.0 ypc, 0 TD
Looks like the Panthers take it and take control of the NFC South

Minnesota @ Arizona (-3)
The Pick: Minnesota
Minnesota-Aundrae Allison-12 games, 0 starts, 10 rec, 109 yds, 10.9 ypc 0 TD
Arizona-Jerame Tuman-3 games, 2 starts, 3 rec, 41 yds, 13.7 ypc, 0 TD
The Vikings cover to make it 4-for-4 for the NFC Norse. Now, can the rule of 51 give them a win as well?? Pago Togafau of Arizona has 2 years of experience, and Minnesota's Ben Leber has been in the league 7 years. Vikes win.

New England (-7) @ Oakland
The Pick: New England
New England-Ben Watson-11 games, 6 starts, 22 rec, 209 yds, 9.5 ypc, 2 TD
Oakland-Javon Walker-8 games, 7 starts, 15 rec, 196 yds, 13.1 ypc, 1 TD
This is the closest one so far, but Ben Watson and the Pats pull out the win.

New York Giants @ Dallas (-3)
The Pick: Dallas
New York Giants-Darcy Johnson-13 games, 1 start, 2 rec, 2 yds, 1 ypc, 2 TD
Dallas-Patrick Crayton-13 games, 7 starts, 31 rec, 409 yds, 13.2 ypc, 3 TD
I'm impressed that Johnson has 2-1 yd. TD receptions and nothing else, but Crayton has pretty good numbers. Dallas wins.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 15TH

Cleveland @ Philadelphia (-14)
The Pick: Philadelphia
Cleveland-Joe Jurevicius-Physically Unable to Play
Philadelphia-Hank Baskett-13 games, 5 starts, 30 rec, 425 yds, 14.2 ypc, 3 TD
Well, I think it's obvious who gets the choice in this one.

So...two things. 1. I hope this can give me lots and lots of blind luck and lead me to a good week. 2. Number 84 is a very weak number in the NFL right now. There's TJ Whosyourmama and Roddy White, and then like two mediocre guys. That's it. Go Pack Go

Monday, December 8, 2008

NFL Week 14

Well...the picks are up really late, but they were done before the games started. You'll be able to tell when you see how terrible they are. I'm not sure how Barnes and I are doing against each other, but I think he's ahead of me by 8 or 9 games.

THURSDAY,DECEMBER 4TH

Oakland @ San Diego (-9.5)
The Pick: San Diego
I have no confidence in the Chargers, but lately they seem to be able to handle the Raiders pretty well. I could easily see this going the other way though.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 7TH

Jacksonville @ Chicago (-6.5)
The Pick; Chicago
The Jags just want this season to end, and the Bears should have a renewed vigor after seeing the Williamses fall for the Vikes.

Minnesota (-8) @ Detroit
The Pick: Minnesota
There's a chance for a letdown, but AD isn't going to let that happen against the Lions I expect.

Houston @ Green Bay (-5.5)
The Pick: Green Bay
Another Packer pick I have very little confidence in. I hate when I have to feel that way, especially against the Texans.

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis (-13.5)
The Pick: Cincinnati (ATS) Indy (Straight Up)
They won't win, but I feel like they'll keep it close.

Atlanta @ New Orleans (-3)
The Pick: Atlanta
Matty Ice and The Burner...that's enough for me

Philadelphia @ New York Giants (-7)
The Pick: New York Giants
I'd be crazy to pick against this team right now.

Cleveland @ Tennessee (-14)
The Pick: Tennessee
If Josh Cribbs come in at quarterback, I say Cleveland covers. With Ken Dorsey, nope.

Miami v. Buffalo (-1) (At Toronto)
The Pick: Miami
Buffalo=the ship is sinking!!!! How many times do I have to say it??

Kansas City @ Denver (-9)
The Pick: Kansas City
I don't trust Denver covering 9

New York Jets (-4) @ San Francisco
The Pick: New York Jets
Brett better get back on track against the Niners after last week's debacle.

St. Louis @ Arizona (-14)
The Pick: Arizona
St. Louis has no chance in my opinion.

Dallas @ Pittsburgh (-3)
The Pick: Pittsburgh
I think the Steelers are a force to be reckoned with

New England (-5) @ Seattle
The Pick: New England
Seattle is just plain bad.

Washington @ Baltimore (-5)
The Pick: Baltimore
They have improved rapidly, and I'm cool with it.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 8TH

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-3)
The Pick: Tampa Bay
I just think the Bucs are a better team.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

NFL Picks Week Thirteen

Well...it was a pretty good week last week that I'm just trying to build on during the stretch run. I went 11-5 against the spread and 10-6 straight up with my one difference being that Seattle covered but didn't win. That brings my season total to 88-73-1. Barnes, only lost one game to my good week, though, staying 9 games ahead of me, 97-64-1. I've got a ways to go if I want to beat him. Here are the picks this week.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27TH

Tennessee (-11) @ Detroit
The Pick: Tennessee
The Lions have a tendency to play their most inspired football in front of a Turkey Day audience, but I'm not sure their most inspired football can overcome even an 11 point spread against a pissed off group of Titans.

Seattle @ Dallas (-12.5)
The Pick: Seattle (ATS), Dallas (Straight Up)
I went with the 'Hawks and Hasselbeck last week and he got the cover for me. Can he do it against the 'Boys on the road?? Well...Shaun Hill put up 22 on them. In a 13 point game you say?? What do I have to lose says I. Give me the 'Hawks.

Arizona @ Philadelphia (-3)
The Pick: Arizona
The face that the Eagles are favored against the Cardinals, despite the fact that they have to travel across the country where no west team has won all year...blah, blah, blah...it's laughable. The Eagles may be the second worst team in the NFL right now in front of the Lionesses.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30TH

San Francisco @ Buffalo (-7)
The Pick: San Francisco
Two reasons...Shaun Hill has played well recently, and I told you the Bills ship is sinking twice already, and I'm not about to jump off that bandwagon.

Baltimore (-7) @ Cincinnati
The Pick: Baltimore
I'd take this line if it were 20. The Ravens are coming alive.

Indianapolis (-4.5) @ Cleveland
The Pick: Indy
The Browns are going the downward direction, and the Colts are going the upward direction. It seems so simple.

Carolina @ Green Bay (-3)
The Pick: Green Bay
I was supposed to be at this game, but my dad's shoulder isn't healed enough for the cold weather, so we're breaking tradition, which is bad but necessary. Anyway, the Packers and Panthers both got tore up last week, so I'll go with the home team because, A. I said I wouldn't pick against them again, and B. If they don't win this, their season is probably over.

Denver @ New York Jets (-8)
The Pick: New York Jets
J-E-T-S Bretts, Bretts, Bretts!! They'll tear up the mostly young Denver defense just like everyone else has been. It's stunning how many young players Denver has, and the Jets are hitting on all cylinders.

Miami (-8) @ St. Louis
The Pick: Miami
I've already said that I'm the Chad Pennington of touch football, but I'm going to trade in my throwing ball for some receiver gloves in my annual Turkey Bowl Friday. Can I be a Ted Ginn of touch football?? No, but maybe a smaller Anthony Fasano??

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-3.5)
The Pick: Tampa Bay
Brees will get yards, but not like he did against the Pack.

New York Giants (-3.5) @ Washington
The Pick: New York Giants
Washington almost lost to Seattle. New York lost to the Browns. The Seattle squeaker is still worse in my book.

Atlanta @ San Diego (-5.5)
The Pick: Atlanta
I still think San Diego favored is laughable. Matty Ice and The Burner taught me a lesson last week that will probably backfire on me this week.

Pittsburgh @ New England (-1)
The Pick: New England
Too much fire power for the Pats at home. Cassell is looking for a pay day.

Kansas City @ Oakland (-3)
The Pick: Kansas City
I don't think da Raidas can string two together.

Chicago @ Minnesota (-3.5)
The Pick: Minnesota
On the fake grass indoors, AD will have a day.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 1ST

Jacksonville @ Houston (-3)
The Pick: Houston
Rosenfels...Rosenfels...Rosenfels. Also, look up the combined stats for Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. It's not even funny, just sad.

That's all. Go Pack Go

Saturday, November 22, 2008

NFL Picks-Week Twelve

Alright. Here are my picks for the week. I was a pretty good 10-5-1 last week straight up while my Against the Spread was a miserable 4-12. My straight up record though is 78-67-1 now. Not terrible...not great. Here are my picks this week. No gimmicks. Just hoping things go better than they have.

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 20TH

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-10.5)
The Pick: Pittsburgh
A lot of times the visiting team wins in this series, but this isn't your average year. Despite what anyone says, the Bengals suck, and they won't cover.

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 23RD

Carolina @ Atlanta (1.5)
The Pick: Carolina
The Panthers have been shaky lately, and the Falcons are fuming after last week's collapse. So what do you do?? Whatever goes against common sense.

Philadelphia @ Baltimore (-1)
The Pick: Philadelphia
Baltimore's rush D is really good, despite what happened against the Giants, but they won't need it this week. Donovan "What's a tie?" McNabb pulls it out before overtime.

Houston @ Cleveland (-3)
The Pick: Houston
Brady's not ready for DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams. Yes, I'm being serious.

San Francisco @ Dallas (-10)
The Pick: Dallas
My buddy Matt is down in Irving for his only trip to Texas Stadium, so I'll take the 'Boys even though I hate them.

Tampa Bay (-8.5) @ Detroit
The Pick: Tampa Bay
Detroit's going to get caught looking ahead to another wide receiver in the Top Five of the Draft. Oh wait...Millen's not there anymore?? No. I still expect the same.

Minnesota @ Jacksonville (-2)
The Pick: Minnesota
I don't trust either team and usually pick both wrong so everyone else should go with Jacksonville.

Buffalo (-3) @ Kansas City
The Pick: Kansas City
I said two weeks ago, I'll say it again. Buffalo is cooked. By the way...what happened to all of the people saying Trent Edwards should be MVP?? They've been awfully quiet lately. Also...I'll add that I just saw an unbelievable one-handed TD grab in the Oklahoma-Texas Tech game. My goodness.

New England @ Miami (-1.5)
The Pick: New England
Miami will finish above Buffalo but below the Pats and Jets. Belichick had 10 days to make up for the beating his boys took at Gillette. It won't happen again.

Chicago (-8) @ St. Louis
The Pick: Chicago
Steven Jackson's out. St. Louis loses bad.

New York Jets @ Tennessee (-5)
The Pick: New York Jets
Favre gets it done for the first time againt Tennessee D-Coordinator Jim Schwartz. He's thrown 4 picks and fumbled once in 2 starts against Schwartz defenses, but he gets them back in the worst way this week.

Oakland @ Denver (-9.5)
The Pick: Denver
I was very tempted to take Oakland, but I just don't feel like they can get it done.

New York Giants (-3.5) @ Arizona
The Pick: New York Giants
Kurt Warner won't be upright long enough to pass for 400 yards.

Washington (-3.5) @ Seattle
The Pick: Seattle
In Hasselback I trust this week

Indianapolis @ San Diego (-2.5)
The Pick: San Diego
San Diego favored by any margin is a joke to me right now, even if they have won their last 4 home games.

MONDAY NOVEMBER 24TH

Green Bay @ New Orleans (-2.5)
The Picks: Green Bay
I've picked against the Pack twice this year. I've lost twice. Nuff said.

That's it. Go Pack Go

Saturday, November 15, 2008

NFL Picks- Week Eleven

No Comments this week. And coming off another crappy showing. Boy do I suck. Barnes is ahead of me by 9 games. I don't know what the records are.


THURSDAY NOVEMBER 13TH
New York Jets @ New England (-3)
The Pick: New England

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 16TH
Denver @ Atlanta (-6)
The Pick: Denver

Oakland @ Miami (-10.5)
The Pick: Miami

Baltimore @ New York Giants (-6.5)
The Pick: Baltimore (ATS), New York Giants (Straight Up)

Houston @ Indianapolis (-8.5)
The Pick: Indianapolis

Chicago @ Green Bay (-4)
The Pick: Chicago (ATS), Green Bay (Straight Up)

Philadelphia (-9) @ Cincinnati
The Pick: Philadelphia

New Orleans (-5) @ Kansas City
The Pick: New Orleans

Detroit @ Carolina (-14)
The Pick: Carolina

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay (-3.5)
The Pick: Tampa Bay

St. Louis @ San Francisco (-6)
The Pick: St. Louis

Arizona (-3) @ Seattle
The Pick: Seattle

Tennessee (-3) @ Jacksonville
The Pick: Tennessee

San Diego @ Pittsburgh (-4.5)
The Pick: Pittsburgh

Dallas (-1) @ Washington
The Pick: Washington

MONDAY NOVEMBER 17TH
Cleveland @ Buffalo (-5.5)
The Pick: Buffalo

Thursday, November 6, 2008

NFL-Week Ten Picks

My picks this week will be based entirely on my iTunes. I'm going to play a song on my iTunes, and judging by which team I feel the song best fits and whether that shows the team in a positive or negative light will decide my pick. Also, straight up, I'm a miserable 68-62 while Barnes put a -5 on me last week to take an 8 game lead at 76-54. Man do I suck.

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6TH

Denver @ Cleveland (-3)
The Pick: Cleveland
We Built this City on Rock and Roll-Jefferson Starship
This classic song can only describe the city of Rock and Roll, and for that reason alone, Cleveland starts off the Brady Quinn era with a win.

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 9TH

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-1)
The Pick: Atlanta
Become-Goo Goo Dolls
What the Falcons have become is a legitimate playoff contender. New Orleans has no defense and the Falcons will outscore them.

Tennessee (-3) @ Chicago
The Pick: Tennessee
Nothin' But the Taillights-Clint Black
The Titans are showing the AFC South and the rest of the NFL the taillights right now and just running away from everyone. When you have the NFL's leading rusher and leader in touchdowns, and it's two separate players...just wow.

Jacksonville (-6.5) @ Detroit
The Pick: Detroit
Just a Dream-Carrie Underwood
The Jags have to be thinking it's just a dream that their dream season is going down the drain so quickly. I could've said that the Lions are dreaming too because they never thought they'd go 0-for the first half, but I think it's more surprising to see Jacksonville at 3-5.

Baltimore (-1) @ Houston
The Pick: Houston
Rain-Breaking Benjamin
The hurricane rain has stopped in Houston, and the Texans have been great at home.

Seattle @ Miami (-9)
The Pick: Miami
Just Might Make Me Believe-Sugarland
Tony Sparano, Ronnie Brown and the efficiency man, Chad Pennington, are making Dolphins fans believe that this team could actually do something special. On a side note, I realized that I'm the Chad Pennington of touch football. My completion percentage is lights out, while my deep ball leaves something to be desired.

Green Bay @ Minnesota (-2)
The Pick: Green Bay
Everything I Do-Bryan Adams
Well...clearly I took this as a love song from the Pack to me or vice versa. Pack over Vi-Queens for the season sweep.

Buffalo @ New England (-3.5)
The Pick: New England
Wish I Didn't Know Now (What I Didn't Know Then)-Toby Keith
The Pats wish they didn't know that Tom Brady won't be helping them at all this season, but they do, and it's looking like they've come to grips with it finally. Also...mark my words. The ship is sinking in Buffalo.

St. Louis @ New York Jets (-8)
The Pick: New York Jets
Livin' On a Prayer-Bon Jovi
The Jets, and every Favre pass seems to be living on a prayer these days. Jets fans are praying for wins and less picks, and while, I'm not sure if the Jets can cover this spread, Bon Jovi says otherwise.

Carolina (-9) @ Oakland
The Pick: Carolina
My Last Name-Dierks Bentley
As soon as I saw this song come up, I thought of Hunt always picking Jake "Of the man" to pull out the win, so, clearly the Panthers will get it done.

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh (-3.5)
The Pick: Pittsburgh
Keg in the Closet-Kenny Chesney
One line says "We went to class just to pass the time, back in '89." So who was the better team in 1989?? Pittsburgh was 9-7 to Indy's 8-8. Clearly the Steelers will cover.

Kansas City @ San Diego (-15)
The Pick: Kansas City
Piano Man-Billy Joel
Names mentioned in the song are Paul, David, Bill and John. So which team has most of those names?? The Chargers have Center David Binn, Quarterback Billy Volek, and Safety Paul Oliver, while the Chiefs have Tight End John Paul Foschi, Wide Receiver Will Franklin, and Safety Jon McGraw. So...who gets the nod?? The Chiefs have one person that has two of the names. That's our clear winner.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia (-3)
The Pick New York Giants
100 Years-Five For Fighting
The ages mentioned in the song are 15, 22, 33, 45, 67 and 99. So who was better each of those years?? 15 years ago-1993-Giants win 11-5 to 8-8. 22 years ago-1986-Giants win 14-2 to 5-10. 33 years ago-1975-Giants win 5-9 to 4-10. 45 years ago-1963-Giants win 11-3 to 2-10. 67 years ago-1941-Giants win 8-3 to 2-8. 99 years ago, these teams didn't exist. So...Giants win in convincing fashion 5-0. Game over.

MONDAY NOVEMBER 10TH

San Francisco @ Arizona (-9.5)
The Pick: Arizona
Bring it on Home-Little Big Town
Just from the title, I'll go ahead and take Arizona.

So, there you have it. I've resorted to allowing songs to pick my games. Go Pack Go.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

NFL-We're Halfway Home

Now that every team has at least 8 games in the books, this is an appropriate time to look back again to see how my preseason predictions are looking. If they're anything like my week-to-week picks, it won't be good.

AFC

East

New England (Overall 5-3, My Pick 5-3) Interesting. I picked them at 5-3 with Brady and they've done it with Cassell instead. This team doesn't look too bad right now. Cassell does a lot of the things Brady does. He just is still getting used to being the starter. Remember, it has been nine years. The Pats are looking good, especially with Buffalo's recent struggles and the Jets' inconsistency.

New York Jets (5-3, 5-3) Once again, I'm right on the money. I predicted a 4-4 finish for the Jets, and with Tennessee, New England, Denver, Miami and Buffalo on tap still, 4-4 is possible, but I'm thinking 5-3 again to go 10-6, one better than my 9-7 prediction.

Buffalo (5-3, 2-6) So, I said at the quarter pole, and I say it again. I was wrong about this team. They have one more win right now than I predicted they'd get the entire season. Watch out though. Trent Edwards hasn't played well since the big concussion, and I feel like the Bills are a sinking ship.

Miami (4-4, 4-4) How about starting off by picking 3 of the first 4 right at the midpoint. I knew the Dolphins would be improved this year, and it's very realistic that they'll betterthe 7 wins I predicted with games remaining against Oakland, Seattle, San Francisco, St. Louis and Kansas City, with division games against New England, Buffalo and New York. Would it be that surprising if they won 5 or even 6 of those. It wouldn't be to me.

North

Pittsburgh (6-2, 4-4) I didn't have a lot of confidence in the Steelers this year, but it's looking like they're going to steamroll the 9-7 prediction I had for them, and win the division easily.

Baltimore (5-3, 3-5) I never would've thought Joe Flacco would have the impact he has so far, and the defense isn't as washed up as I originally thought. They already have more than the four wins I predicted, so I guess they go in the Buffalo boat for me.

Cleveland (3-5, 4-4) I'm not looking too bad right now with the Brownies. It'll be interesting to see if Brady can pull them together and lead them to a 5-3 finish to get the 8-8 record I imagined.

Cincinnati (1-7, 0-8) So, they broke the losing streak this week, keeping me from being correct in giving them a perfectly awful defeated first half. I said they'd win against Baltimore and Washington in the second half, and I don't see them ever beating Washington this season, so I'm still feeling good about my 2-14 prediction.

South

Tennessee (8-0, 2-6) Well, speaking of horrible picks. I came into this season having no confidence in Vince Young (a good assessment), but had no idea that their defense, Chris Johnson and LenDale White would do the things they're doing this season. I like to see the Titans do well, so I'm alright with blowing this pick.

Indianapolis (4-4, 7-1) Old impressions die hard. I never foresaw the fall from grace that has been the Colts this season. They'll have to finish 7-1 to get the 11-5 I predicted. Not likely, especially with games against @ Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Jacksonville and San Diego and a home match up Week 17 against Tennessee.

Jacksonville (3-5, 6-2) I had big expectations for the running back tandem of Jones-Drew and Freddie Taylor, and the no-turnover David Garrard, but this team has been awful at times this season. They're already guaranteed to be worse than the 12-4 I predicted for them.

Houston (3-5, 4-4) Well, I was right in thinking they'd be better or as good as in the last couple years, but it's been more of a struggle than I expected. Despite a good young defense and the great Andre Johnson at wideout, they're not quite ready to take the next step.

West

Denver (4-4, 4-4) The pick was right at the quarter pole, and it's right now too, but a lot of my actual picks have been wrong. This is a strange team, and I never know what they're going to do from week to week. I picked them to have a 6-2 second half to lock up the final playoff berth. I would be surprised to see them play that well with contests remaining @ Atlanta, Cleveland, New York Jets, Carolina and San Diego, with a home date with Buffalo.

San Diego (3-5, 8-0) So I had a lot more confidence in LT and Philip Rivers than I probably should have. A lot of the Chargers' problems have been injuries on Defense, but also, just like Denver, they seem to be a different team every single week. They don't play with a sense of urgency, which scares me, considering they still have to face Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Denver.

Oakland (2-6, 2-6) A correct pick indeed. 1-3 for the first quarter, 1-3 for the second quarter, but there is no way the Raiders go 4-4 the rest of the way to go 6-10 the way I thought they would. I thought McFadden would have more of an effect this year and JaMarcus Russell would do something, but Russell has been a blob and McFadden has had some injuries.

Kansas City (1-7, 1-7) 3 out of 4 out west too, with one terrible exception. I'm proud of myself for realizing how terrible the Chefs would be this year. Which game did I predict they'd win?? Not the very surprising win over the Broncos...but an even more surprising win against Tennessee. Good one Jake. The chances of them finishing 4-4 like I said is looking almost impossible, just like for the Raiders. Stay posted.

Playoff Picture

Preseason Picks:
1. San Diego 2. New England 3. Jacksonville 4. Pittsburgh 5. Indianapolis 6. Denver

Right Now:
1. Tennessee 2. Pittsburgh 3. New England 4. Denver 5. Baltimore 6. New York Jets

I'm at 3 out of 6 right now. From the quarter pole until now, Buffalo dropped from second seed to first team out, Pittsburgh moved up one, New England moved up two, Baltimore's up one, and the Jets have supplanted the Bills.


NFC

East

New York Giants (7-1, 5-3) Well...I picked them to beat Dallas and lose to Cleveland, but I also had them losing to Seattle (oops). Anyway, this is a team I definitely underestimated, picking them to finish 9-7, last in the uber-competitive NFC East. Look at this defensive line though. Boy are they incredible.

Washington (6-3, 5-4) So they're one game better than I predicted. This is a very talented team, another that is better than I gave them credit for. With the easiest games remaining being Cincinnati, Seattle and San Francisco, they should get to the 10-6 I predicted, but it's up in the air whether it will be much more.

Philadelphia (5-3, 6-2) Pretty much exactly opposite of Washington. They're a half game behind the Skins, and I said they'd be 1 1/2 ahead. It could be a struggle finishing 6-2 to get to the 11-5 I predicted with remaining contests against the Giants twice, Baltimore, Arizona, Cleveland, Washington and Dallas with the only near gimme coming next week against Cincinnati.

Dallas (5-4, 7-2) I thought this team was going to be great, and for the first 3 games, they really were. Unfortunately, the wheels have fallen off since then, and while I predicted them to finish a modest 4-3 in finishing 11-5, I'm not sure they'll win that many with games left against Washington, the Giants, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Philadelphia. I'd expect about a 3-4, to finish 8-8.

North

Chicago (5-3, 1-7) I have no idea why I thought the Bears were giong to be so bad. I think I was distracted by the putrid play of Rex Grossman, and their complete lack of run game. The Defense has put it back together though for the most part, and Kyle Orton is leading one of the top offenses in the league. Wow...that doesn't feel right at all. But yea...safe to say they'll be better than the 2-14 I predicted.

Green Bay (4-4, 5-3) I haven't been very good with the Packers. In the second quarter of the season in particular, I picked them to beat Atlanta, Seattle and Tennessee and lose to Indianapolis. For those of you scoring at home, that's one out of four right. Yet, I'm pretty close on the overall record. I thought they'd finish an identical 5-3 in the second half, and it seems pretty possible with dates against Chicago twice, Minnesota, Detroit, New Orleans, Carolina, Jacksonville and Houston. I see wins against Minnesota, Detroit, Jacksonville, Houston and at least once against the Bears. Not so sure about the NFC South games.

Minnesota (4-4, 7-1) What a mistake it was for me to think this team would do so well. They have proven that a team without a quarterback can't be truly great. I should have known better. The chances of them finishing 7-1 and going 11-5 like I said is almost impossible.

Detroit (0-8, 3-5) Well, I thought they'd be decent, and I was very wrong. Will they go 3-5 the rest of the way and end the 3-13 I predicted?? I doubt it.

South

Carolina (6-2, 6-2) I was right about the comeback of the Panthers this season. With a healthy Jake Delhomme and a rejuvenated run game with Jonathan Stewart, these guys have been pretty consistent, except for a blowout loss to Tampa Bay. 4-4 the rest of the way should get them in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay (6-3, 5-4) If I'd only known then what I know now, I would have never picked Seattle to beat them, and I'd be right where I need to be with the Bucs. I had them going 4-3 the rest of the way, with near gimmes against Detroit and Oakland and home match ups with San Diego, New Orleans and Minnesota.

Atlanta (5-3, 4-4) I was right in believing that the Falcons were going to rebound this year, but they've done even better than I thought. Matt Ryan has been great, and Michael Turner has been everything that made me believe this team would improve this season. I said they'd go 3-5 over the final eight, but I think they have favorable matchups home against Denver and Minnesota, and three of their last four NFC South contests are in Atlanta. This team could still make the playoffs.

New Orleans (4-4, 4-4) Right on with the Saints. I'm kind of proud of this pick because many people had them going a long way. Drew Brees is amazing, and Reggie Bush has stepped up to the plate this season, but they won't go to the Super Bowl with a Defense like the one they employ. I predicted a 6-2 finish to take the division going away, but it will be tough with four division games (2 at home, 2 on the road), two against playoff contenders Green Bay and Chicago, and two near gimmes, Kansas City and Detroit.

West

Arizona (5-3, 2-6) I was right on with them at 2-2 at the quarter pole, but they've won 3 of 4 since then, and I had them losing all four. Go figure. The Cardinals are close to being a lock already in this terrible division, and they're two games better than I predicted for the season. It's about time they're decent.

Seattle (2-6, 7-1) Probably my worst pick of the year. Either this or Tennessee. I don't think anyone foresaw them being quite this bad, though picking them to go 12-4 seems foolish. The thing is, I thought this division would have one good team (a correct assumption), I just didn't pick the right team.

San Francisco (2-6, 0-8) They're bad, but I thought they'd be even worse. What two games did I pick them to win this year?? Buffalo and at St. Louis...both doubtful.

St. Louis (2-6, 2-6) After a division of terrible predictions, I finally got one right. I thought they'd match the second half with another 2-6, winning at San Fran and at Arizona. That second one...I doubt it, but I could see another win home against Seattle.

Playoff Picture

Preseason Picks:
1. Seattle 2. Dallas 3. Minnesota 4. New Orleans 5. Philadephia 6. Green Bay

Right Now:
1. New York Giants 2. Carolina 3. Arizona 4. Chicago 5. Tampa Bay 6. Washington

As of right now, my preseason playoff picture doesn't have a single team that will make the playoffs. That is the NFL to a tee. Honestly, how does that even happen??

My picks for the season are 76-55. I guess I should just use those for my picks, considering I'm 68-62 picking week by week. I just feel bad about myself for having to write that. In my picks, I have only 3 of 12 of my preseason teams making the playoffs, and out of last season's 12, 7 would be in. Here's to a wild and crazy second half. Go Pack Go

Thursday, October 30, 2008

NFL Picks-Week Nine

In the spirit of the midseason, I will give out an award for each game. It might go to a player or a team or a storyline. Maybe it will take my mind off being terrible at this. Also, my straight up picks were actually good last week. I went 10-4, improving my season record to 63-53, while Barnes went 7-7, dropping his lead over me to 3 games at 66-50. Just a little aside. Last season at this time, I was 72-45, 9 games better. It hasn't been a great season.

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 2ND

New York Jets @ Buffalo (-5.5)
The Pick: Buffalo
This is tough, but I'll go with Brett Favre. He gets the "T.O., Please Someone Pay Attention To Me" Award. At first I thought Favre just wanted to come back, but now it seems like he's just looking for attention. It hurts me a lot. The Bills are a close second for "Most Surprising Team"

Detroit @ Chicago (-13)
The Pick: Detroit (ATS) Chicago (Straight Up)
Dan Orlovsky gets the "You've Played Football How Long and Don't Know What An Endline Looks Like?" Award. He will never live that down. Never ever.

Jacksonville (-7.5) @ Cincinnati
The Pick: Jacksonville
Chad Ocho Cinco gets the "I Changed My Name For This?" Award. Since changing his name, he has done nothing. I was going to say nothing good, but really, he's just done nothing.

Baltimore @ Cleveland (-1.5)
The Pick: Cleveland
For Joe Flacco, the "In D-1AA Quarterbacks Can Throw and Catch" Award after bringing in a 43 yarder from Troy Smith last week.

Tampa Bay (-8.5) @ Kansas City
The Pick: Kansas City (ATS) Tampa Bay (Straight Up)
Jeff Garcia gets the "Coach Only Starts Me Because He Has To" Award, only because Chucky seems to be looking for any chance to bench the diminuitive husband of the smoking stripper.

Houston @ Minnesota (-4.5)
The Pick: Houston
Mario Williams with the "Reggie Bush Doesn't Get Number One Money But I Do" Award because although he hasn't clearly proved he was the better pick, he does make the money, and isn't that all that really matters??

Arizona (-3) @ St. Louis
The Pick: St. Louis
Jim Haslett gets the "I Only Coach Well Under Adversity" Award for bringing this team back from the dead and having his other great season be with the Saints in the wake of Katrina.

Green Bay @ Tennessee (-5.5)
The Pick: Green Bay
The Packers secondary gets the "We're Almost As Injured As The Ohio Bobcats" Award for having basically everyone suffer some sort of injury.

Miami @ Denver (-3)
The Pick: Denver
Ronnie Brown gets the "I'm Not A Tiger Anymore. Just Call Me Wildcat" Award for leading the biggest gimmick offense ofthe 2008 first half.

Dallas @ New York Giants (-8.5)
The Pick: New York Giants
The Giants D-Line gets the "Michael and Osi Who?" Award for playing unbelievably even after losing arguably its two best players.

Atlanta (-3) @ Oakland
The Pick: Atlanta
The Falcons get "Feel Good Story Of The Year" for turning into a legitimate team just a year after the Vick and Petrino fiascos.

Philadelphia (-7) @ Seattle
The Pick: Philadelphia
Mike Holmgren with the "I Came Back For This?" Award for possibly retiring a year too late.

New England @ Indianapolis (-5.5)
The Pick: New England
Bill Belichick gets the "Damn, Brady Made Me Look Great" Award for maybe not being quite as good as he made us believe.

MONDAY NOVEMBER 3RD

Pittsburgh @ Washington (-2)
The Pick: Washington
Big Ben gets the "At Least I Wear A Helmet On The Field" Award because, after all the hits he's taken, he'd probably look like he did after the big motorcycle crash if he didn't have that Black and Gold helmet.

There you have it. Another week in the books. Hooray. Go Pack Go

Friday, October 24, 2008

NFL Week Eight Picks

After a dreadful 6-8 week straight up and 4-10 ATS, all I can do is pray that it gets better this week. In straight up picks, Barnes picked up two more games on me, extending his lead to 6 at 59-43 to 53-49. I can still come back, but I might want to get on that. Anyway...enough small talk. Now...on to the picks...accompanied by comments this week. It was depressing to not see any of my comments on the blog last week.

Oakland @ Baltimore (-7)
The Pick: Oakland (ATS) Baltimore (Straight Up)
Remember the movie the Cable Guy when Jim Carrey gracefully plummets from the satellite and almost kills himself by hitting the receiver, thereby blowing out everyone's signal and not letting anyone see the verdict of the big court case?? I hope someone does that this week so no one has to be forced into watching the Fighting Flaccos play this Cable Guy's team.

Arizona @ Carolina (-4.5)
The Pick: Carolina
The Panthers are dynamite at home, and going from the west to the east to play this year has been tough on all of the travelling teams.

Tampa Bay @ Dallas (-3.5)
The Pick: Tampa Bay
It's too bad Gruden doesn't get the wild hair to bring back Rob Johnson for a game just to face off against Brad Johnson for Johnson superiority. Johnson superiority...a game I'm sure Jeff Garcia must beat them all in. I mean, there must be some reason Carmella was willing to marry him...right??

Washington (-8.5) @ Detroit
The Pick: Washington
A lot of people are going with the Lionesses this week, but not me. Why?? Because I don't pick up on trends. And I refuse to believe the Redskins will play a third straight dud.

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami
The Pick: Buffalo
I think Buffalo's D is better than Baltimore's and Baltimore put a spanking on the Dolphins.

St. Louis @ New England (-7)
The Pick: New England
I heard Tom Brady's not playing this week. Sucks for the Pats. Oh well...I think they'll bring down the resurgent big horned sheep this week.

San Diego (-3) @ New Orleans @ LONDON
The Pick: New Orleans
Because, little do people know, Drew Brees actually grew up delivering papers on the streets of this grand old English city (that's how he got his arm), and because the Chargers infuriate me week in and week out Side note: Everyone else should pick San Diego because I almost guarantee I'm wrong on this pick.

Kansas City @ New York Jets (-13)
The Pick: Kansas City (ATS) New York Jets (Straight Up)
Favre follows up "the most disappointing game of his career" with another clunker. Meanwhile, his golden image continues to look more and more copperish. I'm starting to think he wants to just send me into a spiral of tears and despair.

Atlanta @ Philadelphia (-9)
The Pick: Atlanta (ATS) Philadelphia (Straight Up)
The Golden Boy looks awfully good with a rejuvenated line and a Burner in the backfield. Although, I'm pretty sure in real life, an Eagle would tear a Falcon to little bits, and then do it again just because he's bored.

Cleveland @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
The Pick: Jacksonville
Can the Brownies stop the run?? Clinton Portis says no, although they still kept the game close. I don't care. I'm betting that two good backs in Jacksonville will give me 6.5, whereas one in Washington could only get me a measley 3.

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh (-3)
The Pick: New York Giants
Because Eli is the new Peyton. Wow...that's funny to write and to look at. Not quite as funny as watching Josh Febus get a concussion for the Bobcats on a botched field goal though. But anyway...Eli's not Peyton, but his O-Line will allow him to make plays, whereas Big Ben will probably be sacked 7 or 8 times.

Seattle @ San Francisco (-4.5)
The Pick: San Francisco
Because JT O'Sullivan is greater than Seneca Wallace. Now...if William Wallace plays...it's Seahawks in a rout. And we'll be treated to public indecency for flashing before and after the win.

Cincinnati @ Houston (-10)
The Pick: Cincinnati (ATS) Houston (Straight Up)
The Bengals suck really bad. But are they 10 points suckier than the Texans. I hope not.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-4)
The Pick: Tennessee
Did you see what the Green Bay defense did to Indy last week?? Tennessee's D is much much better and less injured.

That's it. The Pack are at home recuperating this week. Hope they can get healthy

Sunday, October 19, 2008

NFL Picks...Week Seven

Here are my picks this week. After some family difficulties over the weekend, there are no comments this week. Barnes is ahead of me by like four games. I'll figure it out soon. All of my picks for ATS are also my Straight Up picks this week. Go Pack Go

Tennessee (-8) @ Kansas City
Tennessee

San Diego @ Buffalo (PK)
San Diego

Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ Cincinnati
Pittsburgh

Baltimore @ Miami (-3)
Miami

Dallas (-7) @ St. Louis
Dallas

Minnesota @ Chicago (-3)
Minnesota

New Orleans @ Carolina (-3)
New Orleans

San Francisco @ New York Giants (-10.5)
New York Giants

Detroit @ Houston (-9)
Detroit

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland
New York Jets

Cleveland @ Washington (-7)
Washington

Indianapolis (-1.5) @ Green Bay
Green Bay

Seattle @ Tampa Bay (-10.5)
Tampa Bay

Denver @ New England (-3)
Denver

Thursday, October 9, 2008

NFL Picks: Week Six

After an 11-3 week against the spread, this week really is the most important yet. There are a few challenging calls on the schedule, and I have to find out if, like the Chiefs win against Denver, I'm just a flash in the pan...making a move one week and falling back down the next. I'm hoping to be more the 2008 New York Giants (all 8 of their 2008 games) and put together a real underdog run here, but it's all up in the air at this point.

In my straight up picks, I ended up 9-5 last week, definitely respectable. Barnes was the same so he still leads me by two games in the season series, 42-32 to 40-34. Maybe this week I can overcome my little deficit.

Anyway, let's get right into it.

SUNDAY OCTOBER 12TH

Chicago (-2.5) @ Atlanta
The Pick: Chicago
Atlanta had a nice little game against Green Bay last week. Matt Ryan was effective as a change of pace to Burner Turner's tough running. Unfortunately for the Falcons, Chicago doesn't have trouble stopping the run like the beat up Packers. Haven't heard about Matt Forte in a couple weeks...I say he goes over 100 on the turf. He'll probably have family there so he'll want to perform.

Miami @ Houston (-3)
The Pick: Houston
Houston played a great 58 minutes last week, but couldnt' get it done when it mattered most. This week, they take on Ronnie Brown, Ricky "I want pot so bad" Williams and the Wildcat Formation. I think the Texan D will put the team on their back, and whoever plays quarterback won't have to worry about blowing the game.

Baltimore @ Indianapolis (-4.5)
The Pick: Baltimore
Indy is in big big trouble. It's possible that those last couple minutes actually turned their season around last week, but I'm not counting on it.

Detroit @ Minnesota (-13.5)
The Pick: Minnesota
One of these weeks I'll say Adrian Peterson's going to run wild, and it's actually going to be true. So...this is the week!! PS-Detroit is still terrible

Oakland @ New Orleans (-8)
The Pick: New Orleans
This is a dangerous pick because NOLa doesn't have a great defense, but the Minnesota running game has been one of the best recently, and they didn't do that well last week, so I say Oakland won't either in this time of turmoil. Has Tom Cable been fired yet??

Cincinnati @ New York Jets (-6)
The Pick: Cincinnati
How can I pick against Brett's Jets?? Well...I guess by simply typing the other team's name. I just have a feeling that this is the week the Bengals put it together. They may even pull out the W. (Favre, please don't embarass me and beat them by 30...just win by 3)

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-1.5)
The Pick: Tampa Bay
You have to be impressed that they lose their quarterback and are still in the game, especially against the NFL's number one offense. Yea...I just don't see Carolina putting up enough points. Besides, that Garcia guy is a pretty effective back-up, and have you seen his wife?!?

St. Louis @ Washington (-13.5)
The Pick: St. Louis (ATS) Washington (Straight Up)
Jim Haslett's had two weeks to make the team his own, and Washington has had a week to hear about how amazing they are. Any line under 11 I probably would have taken, but I'm just feeling hesitant for some reason. Damn me for picking St. Louis again...when will I learn??

Jacksonville @ Denver (-3.5)
The Pick: Jacksonville
Playing a hunch that the Jags go Larry Johnson (Week 4 not Week 5) on the Broncos this week and the Jacksonville defense puts on a display after Big Ben ruined their efforts last week.

Dallas (-5) @ Arizona
The Pick: Dallas
Time to take out the frustrations for Romo and TO. Arizona's gonna play punching bag this week.

Philadelphia (-5) @ San Francisco
The Pick: Philadelphia
I almost went with San Francisco and was going to explain that they had an emotional loss against New England and that Philly will be reeling after their loss, but no, I'm not going to do it. Philadelphia comes out fired up and plants the Niners.

Green Bay @ Seattle (-2)
The Pick: Green Bay
Are the Packers really to the point that they're underdogs to a team that has been blown out multiple times this season?? I say no. We'll find out. This may just be mindless rabble from a Packers fan, but I think if they can get their team remotely healthy, they're going to finish the season right where they need to, and no one will want to play them. Luckily, they play in the NFC North where they don't have to be great to stay in the race.

New England @ San Diego (-6)
The Pick: New England
First of all...only 9 guys total on the injury report for this game...must be nice. Second, the Chargers are reeling, and I don't see that ending. The Pats aren't the 2007 Pats, but they'll run their winning streak against San Diego to 5.

MONDAY OCTOBER 13TH

New York Giants (-8) @ Cleveland
The Pick: New York Giants
They are legitimate, and they are good. I don't think they'll lose a game outside the division.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Go Pack Go

Saturday, October 4, 2008

NFL Picks-Week Five

It's Week Five of the NFL Season, and that means it's time for the picks. I made a move last week going 8-5 in ATS and moving out of last place in Luke's league. I'm feeling just a hint of confidence, and I'm ready for more. As for my head to head against Barnes picking games straight up, we disagreed on three games last week and I won them all going 9-4 to his 6-7, so he now leads me 33-27 to 31-29. At least I'm over the .500 mark now.


SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH

Tennessee (-3) @ Baltimore
The Pick: Tennessee
I picked against the Titans last week, but this week I feel like they're going to get it done. These are two similar teams, but I just feel like Baltimore won't get more than maybe 10 points, while Tennessee might get in upwards of 20.

Kansas City @ Carolina (-9.5)
The Pick: Carolina
It's letdown week for the Chiefs. They gave everything they had last week, but they won't have it this week. Larry Johnson says he's back. Well Larry...this isn't Denver's D you're running against this week.

Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit
The Pick: Chicago
Detroit is terrible. Clock's ticking Marinelli.

Atlanta @ Green Bay (-7)
The Pick: Atlanta (ATS) Green Bay (Straight Up)
I'm still picking the Packers to win, but I think it'll be by a field goal. Let's be honest. The Packers are very very beat up right now, and Michael "The Burner" Turner is gonna get some yards.

Indianapolis (-3) @ Houston
The Pick: Indianapolis
This is the week Peyton starts his work on saving the season. Colts by a lot

San Diego (-6.5) @ Miami
The Pick: San Diego
The Chargers have had some trouble against possession quarterbacks this year, but they'll pull it together this week. A quick aside...Miami doesn't have a single player on its injury report. Must be nice.

Seattle @ New York Giants (-7)
The Pick: New York Giants
If the Seahawks had healthy receivers, I was going to go with them, but their running game will not mess with the Giants. Let's be honest. Deion Branch and Bobby Engram will probably be back this week, but I don't think this is the week they get back on track.

Washington @ Philadelphia (-5.5)
The Pick: Washington
I love the Eagles this season, but Washington's growing on me, and I think Clinton Portis is going to give Philly fits.

Tampa Bay @ Denver (-3)
The Pick: Tampa Bay
Because I think Derrick Brooks might not be human. The game he had last week after being in the league so long was unbelievable.

Buffalo @ Arizona (PK) - just pick the winner
The Pick: Buffalo
I wanted Arizona. Logic says, just take Buffalo Jake. You're always wrong about Arizona. So I say, okay.

Cincinnati @ Dallas (-17.5)
The Pick: Cincinnati (ATS) Dallas (Straight Up)
17.5?? No thank you.

New England (-3) @ San Francisco
The Pick: New England
Bill Belichick doesn't lose after the Bye week. I don't care if Matt Cassell is your quarterback. You're playing against San Francisco.

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville (-4)
The Pick: Jacksonville
Three defensive linemen out for Pittsburgh against Taylor and Jones-Drew. Give me the Jags run game.

MONDAY OCTOBER 6TH

Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3)
The Pick: Minnesota
Adrian Peterson is fully healthy. NOLa is missing Marques Colston, Sedrick Ellis, Aaron Glenn, David Patten and Jeremy Shockey. Uh yea...I'll go with the Vikes. But who am I to judge. Minnesota's the only team I haven't picked right all season.

Alright. That'll do it. Go Pack Go

Thursday, October 2, 2008

NFL at the Quarter Pole

The NFL season is 1/4 over for most teams, so it's time to take a look back at my preseason predictions and talk a little about how I and the teams are doing so far.

AFC

East

Buffalo: (Overall 4-0, My Pick 1-3) It's time for me to be honest. The Bills are the first team I ever loved, and every year I want them to do well. So what happened?? I picked them to break out the last two seasons, and it didn't happen. I got "Stop picking Arizona to win" syndrome and decided to be what I thought was realistic. Well, this is the year they turned it around, so I look like a fool.


New England: (2-1, 2-1) Nice. It only took me two teams to get a record right. I never would've picked them to lose to Miami, but I did predict a loss at the Jets. Oh well. I'll be honest though. I'm afraid they're in trouble.

New York Jets: (2-2, 2-2) Once again, I have the record right. Not the exact picks, but the record. I think they're going to end up pretty close to my 9-7 prediction. In Favre they trust.

Miami: (1-2, 2-1) I had a feeling this team would be much improved this year, so much so that they'd beat last year's win total in the first two weeks of the season. So it didn't happen. They are better though, and they have more wins left in them.

North

Pittsburgh: (3-1, 2-2) At this point, I think I underestimated the Steelers a little, but down the line, I think I'll be pretty close because this team just can't stay healthy.

Baltimore: (2-1, 1-2) I had no respect for the Ravens coming into the season. I felt like the defense was old and falling apart, and the offense was inept. Well, the offense is pretty inept, but the defense still looks pretty tough.

Cleveland: (1-3, 2-2) I clearly overestimated the Browns. It's not showing too much yet, but it will soon.

Cincinnati: (0-4, 0-4) Everyone told me I was a fool for picking them to win 2 games. Not looking so foolish at the quarter pole.

South


Tennessee: (4-0, 2-2) I knew the Titans would have a good defense, and I didn't trust Vince Young and their offense one bit, thus constituting my 7-9 pick. Well...the Titans have an outstanding defense, and Vince Young is out of the picture. Take notice NFL. The Titans are here.

Jacksonville: (2-2, 3-1) Jacksonville had a ton of injuries to start the season. Had I known that, I may have given them one less win, probably not, but maybe. They're going to turn it up I think, and, while reaching my pick of 12-4 seems unlikely, I still think they'll be right there at the end.

Indianapolis: (1-2, 2-1) Wouldn't you know it. The one game I said they'd lose in the opening three is the one game they've won. Ridiculous. This team is in trouble, and I'd be surprised if they get double digit wins.

Houston: (0-3, 1-2) I assumed this team would be much improved and hungry for wins. They may have shown me that in the close loss to Jacksonville last week. As for the 9 wins I predicted...fuhgedaboutit

West

Denver: (3-1, 3-1) The pick is right, though I'd have never picked them to loss to KC. I said they'd fall to a team that had them beat anyway, San Diego. Either way, the offense is impressive, while the defense is atrocious. 10 wins is still likely though.

San Diego: (2-2, 4-0) My Super Bowl champs lost more games in the first two weeks of the season than I said they would all year. Oi vey...They have looked pretty good the last couple weeks, though, and I'm not ready to jump off the bandwagon yet.

Oakland: (1-3, 1-3) I'm not too bad in this division. I've picked every game right so far for Da Raidas, but from what I've seen so far, I won't be surprised if they won't get the 6 wins I promised.

Kansas City: (1-3, 0-4) I knew they'd be bad, but they had an inspired performance last week that I never would've seen coming. Either way, I said they'd win 5, but I'd be surprised at this point if they win 4.

Playoff Picture:

My preseason picks in order were:

1. San Diego 2. New England 3. Jacksonville 4. Pittsburgh 5. Indy 6. Denver

Right now:

1. Tennessee 2. Buffalo 3. Pittsburgh 4. Denver 5. New England 6. Baltimore

All I'll say is Wow...Let's see how close this looks at the end of the year.

NFC

East

New York Giants: (3-0, 2-1) The Giants have been very very impressive this season. I didn't think they'd be really tough without all of the studs they lost on the D-Line, but they're doing work in the trenches and everywhere else. Job well done so far.

Washington: (3-1, 1-3) Wouldn't you know it. I've picked all four games wrong for Washington so far. Skins fans better hope that trend doesn't continue because I had them picking up the pace and finishing 10-6.

Dallas: (3-1, 3-1) Right record, wrong loss. Oh well. The Cowboys are a great team, but they appear headed closer to my 11-5 prediction instead of something better unless they shore up that defense.

Philadelphia: (2-2, 3-1) Didn't foresee a loss to Chicago. Everything else is in check. I just want to say, if there has ever been a better last place team, I would want to know who it is. This team could win in the playoffs, and may not even get there.

North

Green Bay: (2-2, 2-2) Well, I said they'd lose to Tampa Bay, so that was a good call, and my realistic expectations are paying off as of right now. I was wrong about why they'd struggle though. I thought Aaron Rodgers would struggle. Instead, it's been Ryan Grant. I hope he's not a one hit wonder because it would be a shame.

Chicago: (2-2, 0-4) Guess who was wrong about Da Bears?? This guy. The defense is back, and I didn't think it would be. If they just had an offense they could make a run like they did a couple years ago. For now, they're gonna put some heat on the Pack while Rodgers tries to recover.

Minnesota: (1-3, 3-1) Don't mind me. Just my other Super Bowl pick drifting off into oblivion. I've picked every game wrong for the Vikes this year, and being a Green Bay guy, I hope that trend keeps up.

Detroit: (0-3, 2-1) Was it that unrealistic that the Lions knocked off the 49ers on the road?? It was?? Oh...okay...

South

Carolina: (3-1, 2-2) Not bad with the Panthers. They look to be on a pretty good track toward 10-6 and the division title I promised them.

Tampa Bay: (3-1, 3-1) Look at that. I've picked every game right this season for the Buccos. I guess Jon Gruden just likes to prove that you really don't need a good quarterback to win.

New Orleans: (2-2, 3-1) I had a little too much confidence in the Saints' defense. Boy was that a mistake. If that unit doesn't pull it together, and fast, NOLa has no shot at 10-6. On another note, Drew Brees is amazing.

Atlanta: (2-2, 2-2) The internet world asks, "You actually thought Atlanta would win of its first four??" To which I reply, ever heard of Michael "The Burner" Turner?? I rest my case.

West

Arizona: (2-2, 2-2) Not bad, not bad. I decided to jump off the "This is Arizona's year" bandwagon this year, and it looks like it was a good choice. They're not great, but the thing is, no one in that division is. Here's the challenge. Can they hold true to my prediction and win 1 of their final 12 games??

San Francisco: (2-2, 0-4) I said the Niners would tie the Bengals as the worst team in the NFL this season. Doesn't look like it's going to happen because they have some young talent that's playing hard out in the Bay Area. J.T. O'Sullivan for Governator??

Seattle: (1-2, 3-0) I figured they'd coast through this schedule to take the number one seed in the NFC even though they're clearly not the best team. Well...I'm not sure they'll even win the division. They've been terrible.

St. Louis: (0-4, 1-3) I predicted they'd win 4. Unless Jim Haslett has some magic up his sleeve, this team will not win four games. Period.

Playoff Picture:

My preseason picks in order were:

1. Seattle 2. Dallas 3. Minnesota 4. New Orleans 5. Philadelphia 6. Green Bay

Right now:

1. New York Giants 2. Carolina 3. Green Bay 4. Arizona 5. Washington 6. Dallas

Even worse than the AFC. Out of my preseason 12 postseason picks, 5 would be in if the season ended today, and 7 of last year's 12 would be in. The NFL is a crazy world. I'll check in in the same sort of way after Week Eight.