Thursday, October 30, 2008

NFL Picks-Week Nine

In the spirit of the midseason, I will give out an award for each game. It might go to a player or a team or a storyline. Maybe it will take my mind off being terrible at this. Also, my straight up picks were actually good last week. I went 10-4, improving my season record to 63-53, while Barnes went 7-7, dropping his lead over me to 3 games at 66-50. Just a little aside. Last season at this time, I was 72-45, 9 games better. It hasn't been a great season.


New York Jets @ Buffalo (-5.5)
The Pick: Buffalo
This is tough, but I'll go with Brett Favre. He gets the "T.O., Please Someone Pay Attention To Me" Award. At first I thought Favre just wanted to come back, but now it seems like he's just looking for attention. It hurts me a lot. The Bills are a close second for "Most Surprising Team"

Detroit @ Chicago (-13)
The Pick: Detroit (ATS) Chicago (Straight Up)
Dan Orlovsky gets the "You've Played Football How Long and Don't Know What An Endline Looks Like?" Award. He will never live that down. Never ever.

Jacksonville (-7.5) @ Cincinnati
The Pick: Jacksonville
Chad Ocho Cinco gets the "I Changed My Name For This?" Award. Since changing his name, he has done nothing. I was going to say nothing good, but really, he's just done nothing.

Baltimore @ Cleveland (-1.5)
The Pick: Cleveland
For Joe Flacco, the "In D-1AA Quarterbacks Can Throw and Catch" Award after bringing in a 43 yarder from Troy Smith last week.

Tampa Bay (-8.5) @ Kansas City
The Pick: Kansas City (ATS) Tampa Bay (Straight Up)
Jeff Garcia gets the "Coach Only Starts Me Because He Has To" Award, only because Chucky seems to be looking for any chance to bench the diminuitive husband of the smoking stripper.

Houston @ Minnesota (-4.5)
The Pick: Houston
Mario Williams with the "Reggie Bush Doesn't Get Number One Money But I Do" Award because although he hasn't clearly proved he was the better pick, he does make the money, and isn't that all that really matters??

Arizona (-3) @ St. Louis
The Pick: St. Louis
Jim Haslett gets the "I Only Coach Well Under Adversity" Award for bringing this team back from the dead and having his other great season be with the Saints in the wake of Katrina.

Green Bay @ Tennessee (-5.5)
The Pick: Green Bay
The Packers secondary gets the "We're Almost As Injured As The Ohio Bobcats" Award for having basically everyone suffer some sort of injury.

Miami @ Denver (-3)
The Pick: Denver
Ronnie Brown gets the "I'm Not A Tiger Anymore. Just Call Me Wildcat" Award for leading the biggest gimmick offense ofthe 2008 first half.

Dallas @ New York Giants (-8.5)
The Pick: New York Giants
The Giants D-Line gets the "Michael and Osi Who?" Award for playing unbelievably even after losing arguably its two best players.

Atlanta (-3) @ Oakland
The Pick: Atlanta
The Falcons get "Feel Good Story Of The Year" for turning into a legitimate team just a year after the Vick and Petrino fiascos.

Philadelphia (-7) @ Seattle
The Pick: Philadelphia
Mike Holmgren with the "I Came Back For This?" Award for possibly retiring a year too late.

New England @ Indianapolis (-5.5)
The Pick: New England
Bill Belichick gets the "Damn, Brady Made Me Look Great" Award for maybe not being quite as good as he made us believe.


Pittsburgh @ Washington (-2)
The Pick: Washington
Big Ben gets the "At Least I Wear A Helmet On The Field" Award because, after all the hits he's taken, he'd probably look like he did after the big motorcycle crash if he didn't have that Black and Gold helmet.

There you have it. Another week in the books. Hooray. Go Pack Go

Friday, October 24, 2008

NFL Week Eight Picks

After a dreadful 6-8 week straight up and 4-10 ATS, all I can do is pray that it gets better this week. In straight up picks, Barnes picked up two more games on me, extending his lead to 6 at 59-43 to 53-49. I can still come back, but I might want to get on that. Anyway...enough small talk. Now...on to the picks...accompanied by comments this week. It was depressing to not see any of my comments on the blog last week.

Oakland @ Baltimore (-7)
The Pick: Oakland (ATS) Baltimore (Straight Up)
Remember the movie the Cable Guy when Jim Carrey gracefully plummets from the satellite and almost kills himself by hitting the receiver, thereby blowing out everyone's signal and not letting anyone see the verdict of the big court case?? I hope someone does that this week so no one has to be forced into watching the Fighting Flaccos play this Cable Guy's team.

Arizona @ Carolina (-4.5)
The Pick: Carolina
The Panthers are dynamite at home, and going from the west to the east to play this year has been tough on all of the travelling teams.

Tampa Bay @ Dallas (-3.5)
The Pick: Tampa Bay
It's too bad Gruden doesn't get the wild hair to bring back Rob Johnson for a game just to face off against Brad Johnson for Johnson superiority. Johnson superiority...a game I'm sure Jeff Garcia must beat them all in. I mean, there must be some reason Carmella was willing to marry him...right??

Washington (-8.5) @ Detroit
The Pick: Washington
A lot of people are going with the Lionesses this week, but not me. Why?? Because I don't pick up on trends. And I refuse to believe the Redskins will play a third straight dud.

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami
The Pick: Buffalo
I think Buffalo's D is better than Baltimore's and Baltimore put a spanking on the Dolphins.

St. Louis @ New England (-7)
The Pick: New England
I heard Tom Brady's not playing this week. Sucks for the Pats. Oh well...I think they'll bring down the resurgent big horned sheep this week.

San Diego (-3) @ New Orleans @ LONDON
The Pick: New Orleans
Because, little do people know, Drew Brees actually grew up delivering papers on the streets of this grand old English city (that's how he got his arm), and because the Chargers infuriate me week in and week out Side note: Everyone else should pick San Diego because I almost guarantee I'm wrong on this pick.

Kansas City @ New York Jets (-13)
The Pick: Kansas City (ATS) New York Jets (Straight Up)
Favre follows up "the most disappointing game of his career" with another clunker. Meanwhile, his golden image continues to look more and more copperish. I'm starting to think he wants to just send me into a spiral of tears and despair.

Atlanta @ Philadelphia (-9)
The Pick: Atlanta (ATS) Philadelphia (Straight Up)
The Golden Boy looks awfully good with a rejuvenated line and a Burner in the backfield. Although, I'm pretty sure in real life, an Eagle would tear a Falcon to little bits, and then do it again just because he's bored.

Cleveland @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
The Pick: Jacksonville
Can the Brownies stop the run?? Clinton Portis says no, although they still kept the game close. I don't care. I'm betting that two good backs in Jacksonville will give me 6.5, whereas one in Washington could only get me a measley 3.

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh (-3)
The Pick: New York Giants
Because Eli is the new Peyton. Wow...that's funny to write and to look at. Not quite as funny as watching Josh Febus get a concussion for the Bobcats on a botched field goal though. But anyway...Eli's not Peyton, but his O-Line will allow him to make plays, whereas Big Ben will probably be sacked 7 or 8 times.

Seattle @ San Francisco (-4.5)
The Pick: San Francisco
Because JT O'Sullivan is greater than Seneca Wallace. Now...if William Wallace's Seahawks in a rout. And we'll be treated to public indecency for flashing before and after the win.

Cincinnati @ Houston (-10)
The Pick: Cincinnati (ATS) Houston (Straight Up)
The Bengals suck really bad. But are they 10 points suckier than the Texans. I hope not.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-4)
The Pick: Tennessee
Did you see what the Green Bay defense did to Indy last week?? Tennessee's D is much much better and less injured.

That's it. The Pack are at home recuperating this week. Hope they can get healthy

Sunday, October 19, 2008

NFL Picks...Week Seven

Here are my picks this week. After some family difficulties over the weekend, there are no comments this week. Barnes is ahead of me by like four games. I'll figure it out soon. All of my picks for ATS are also my Straight Up picks this week. Go Pack Go

Tennessee (-8) @ Kansas City

San Diego @ Buffalo (PK)
San Diego

Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ Cincinnati

Baltimore @ Miami (-3)

Dallas (-7) @ St. Louis

Minnesota @ Chicago (-3)

New Orleans @ Carolina (-3)
New Orleans

San Francisco @ New York Giants (-10.5)
New York Giants

Detroit @ Houston (-9)

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland
New York Jets

Cleveland @ Washington (-7)

Indianapolis (-1.5) @ Green Bay
Green Bay

Seattle @ Tampa Bay (-10.5)
Tampa Bay

Denver @ New England (-3)

Thursday, October 9, 2008

NFL Picks: Week Six

After an 11-3 week against the spread, this week really is the most important yet. There are a few challenging calls on the schedule, and I have to find out if, like the Chiefs win against Denver, I'm just a flash in the pan...making a move one week and falling back down the next. I'm hoping to be more the 2008 New York Giants (all 8 of their 2008 games) and put together a real underdog run here, but it's all up in the air at this point.

In my straight up picks, I ended up 9-5 last week, definitely respectable. Barnes was the same so he still leads me by two games in the season series, 42-32 to 40-34. Maybe this week I can overcome my little deficit.

Anyway, let's get right into it.


Chicago (-2.5) @ Atlanta
The Pick: Chicago
Atlanta had a nice little game against Green Bay last week. Matt Ryan was effective as a change of pace to Burner Turner's tough running. Unfortunately for the Falcons, Chicago doesn't have trouble stopping the run like the beat up Packers. Haven't heard about Matt Forte in a couple weeks...I say he goes over 100 on the turf. He'll probably have family there so he'll want to perform.

Miami @ Houston (-3)
The Pick: Houston
Houston played a great 58 minutes last week, but couldnt' get it done when it mattered most. This week, they take on Ronnie Brown, Ricky "I want pot so bad" Williams and the Wildcat Formation. I think the Texan D will put the team on their back, and whoever plays quarterback won't have to worry about blowing the game.

Baltimore @ Indianapolis (-4.5)
The Pick: Baltimore
Indy is in big big trouble. It's possible that those last couple minutes actually turned their season around last week, but I'm not counting on it.

Detroit @ Minnesota (-13.5)
The Pick: Minnesota
One of these weeks I'll say Adrian Peterson's going to run wild, and it's actually going to be true. So...this is the week!! PS-Detroit is still terrible

Oakland @ New Orleans (-8)
The Pick: New Orleans
This is a dangerous pick because NOLa doesn't have a great defense, but the Minnesota running game has been one of the best recently, and they didn't do that well last week, so I say Oakland won't either in this time of turmoil. Has Tom Cable been fired yet??

Cincinnati @ New York Jets (-6)
The Pick: Cincinnati
How can I pick against Brett's Jets?? Well...I guess by simply typing the other team's name. I just have a feeling that this is the week the Bengals put it together. They may even pull out the W. (Favre, please don't embarass me and beat them by 30...just win by 3)

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-1.5)
The Pick: Tampa Bay
You have to be impressed that they lose their quarterback and are still in the game, especially against the NFL's number one offense. Yea...I just don't see Carolina putting up enough points. Besides, that Garcia guy is a pretty effective back-up, and have you seen his wife?!?

St. Louis @ Washington (-13.5)
The Pick: St. Louis (ATS) Washington (Straight Up)
Jim Haslett's had two weeks to make the team his own, and Washington has had a week to hear about how amazing they are. Any line under 11 I probably would have taken, but I'm just feeling hesitant for some reason. Damn me for picking St. Louis again...when will I learn??

Jacksonville @ Denver (-3.5)
The Pick: Jacksonville
Playing a hunch that the Jags go Larry Johnson (Week 4 not Week 5) on the Broncos this week and the Jacksonville defense puts on a display after Big Ben ruined their efforts last week.

Dallas (-5) @ Arizona
The Pick: Dallas
Time to take out the frustrations for Romo and TO. Arizona's gonna play punching bag this week.

Philadelphia (-5) @ San Francisco
The Pick: Philadelphia
I almost went with San Francisco and was going to explain that they had an emotional loss against New England and that Philly will be reeling after their loss, but no, I'm not going to do it. Philadelphia comes out fired up and plants the Niners.

Green Bay @ Seattle (-2)
The Pick: Green Bay
Are the Packers really to the point that they're underdogs to a team that has been blown out multiple times this season?? I say no. We'll find out. This may just be mindless rabble from a Packers fan, but I think if they can get their team remotely healthy, they're going to finish the season right where they need to, and no one will want to play them. Luckily, they play in the NFC North where they don't have to be great to stay in the race.

New England @ San Diego (-6)
The Pick: New England
First of all...only 9 guys total on the injury report for this game...must be nice. Second, the Chargers are reeling, and I don't see that ending. The Pats aren't the 2007 Pats, but they'll run their winning streak against San Diego to 5.


New York Giants (-8) @ Cleveland
The Pick: New York Giants
They are legitimate, and they are good. I don't think they'll lose a game outside the division.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Go Pack Go

Saturday, October 4, 2008

NFL Picks-Week Five

It's Week Five of the NFL Season, and that means it's time for the picks. I made a move last week going 8-5 in ATS and moving out of last place in Luke's league. I'm feeling just a hint of confidence, and I'm ready for more. As for my head to head against Barnes picking games straight up, we disagreed on three games last week and I won them all going 9-4 to his 6-7, so he now leads me 33-27 to 31-29. At least I'm over the .500 mark now.


Tennessee (-3) @ Baltimore
The Pick: Tennessee
I picked against the Titans last week, but this week I feel like they're going to get it done. These are two similar teams, but I just feel like Baltimore won't get more than maybe 10 points, while Tennessee might get in upwards of 20.

Kansas City @ Carolina (-9.5)
The Pick: Carolina
It's letdown week for the Chiefs. They gave everything they had last week, but they won't have it this week. Larry Johnson says he's back. Well Larry...this isn't Denver's D you're running against this week.

Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit
The Pick: Chicago
Detroit is terrible. Clock's ticking Marinelli.

Atlanta @ Green Bay (-7)
The Pick: Atlanta (ATS) Green Bay (Straight Up)
I'm still picking the Packers to win, but I think it'll be by a field goal. Let's be honest. The Packers are very very beat up right now, and Michael "The Burner" Turner is gonna get some yards.

Indianapolis (-3) @ Houston
The Pick: Indianapolis
This is the week Peyton starts his work on saving the season. Colts by a lot

San Diego (-6.5) @ Miami
The Pick: San Diego
The Chargers have had some trouble against possession quarterbacks this year, but they'll pull it together this week. A quick aside...Miami doesn't have a single player on its injury report. Must be nice.

Seattle @ New York Giants (-7)
The Pick: New York Giants
If the Seahawks had healthy receivers, I was going to go with them, but their running game will not mess with the Giants. Let's be honest. Deion Branch and Bobby Engram will probably be back this week, but I don't think this is the week they get back on track.

Washington @ Philadelphia (-5.5)
The Pick: Washington
I love the Eagles this season, but Washington's growing on me, and I think Clinton Portis is going to give Philly fits.

Tampa Bay @ Denver (-3)
The Pick: Tampa Bay
Because I think Derrick Brooks might not be human. The game he had last week after being in the league so long was unbelievable.

Buffalo @ Arizona (PK) - just pick the winner
The Pick: Buffalo
I wanted Arizona. Logic says, just take Buffalo Jake. You're always wrong about Arizona. So I say, okay.

Cincinnati @ Dallas (-17.5)
The Pick: Cincinnati (ATS) Dallas (Straight Up)
17.5?? No thank you.

New England (-3) @ San Francisco
The Pick: New England
Bill Belichick doesn't lose after the Bye week. I don't care if Matt Cassell is your quarterback. You're playing against San Francisco.

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville (-4)
The Pick: Jacksonville
Three defensive linemen out for Pittsburgh against Taylor and Jones-Drew. Give me the Jags run game.


Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3)
The Pick: Minnesota
Adrian Peterson is fully healthy. NOLa is missing Marques Colston, Sedrick Ellis, Aaron Glenn, David Patten and Jeremy Shockey. Uh yea...I'll go with the Vikes. But who am I to judge. Minnesota's the only team I haven't picked right all season.

Alright. That'll do it. Go Pack Go

Thursday, October 2, 2008

NFL at the Quarter Pole

The NFL season is 1/4 over for most teams, so it's time to take a look back at my preseason predictions and talk a little about how I and the teams are doing so far.



Buffalo: (Overall 4-0, My Pick 1-3) It's time for me to be honest. The Bills are the first team I ever loved, and every year I want them to do well. So what happened?? I picked them to break out the last two seasons, and it didn't happen. I got "Stop picking Arizona to win" syndrome and decided to be what I thought was realistic. Well, this is the year they turned it around, so I look like a fool.

New England: (2-1, 2-1) Nice. It only took me two teams to get a record right. I never would've picked them to lose to Miami, but I did predict a loss at the Jets. Oh well. I'll be honest though. I'm afraid they're in trouble.

New York Jets: (2-2, 2-2) Once again, I have the record right. Not the exact picks, but the record. I think they're going to end up pretty close to my 9-7 prediction. In Favre they trust.

Miami: (1-2, 2-1) I had a feeling this team would be much improved this year, so much so that they'd beat last year's win total in the first two weeks of the season. So it didn't happen. They are better though, and they have more wins left in them.


Pittsburgh: (3-1, 2-2) At this point, I think I underestimated the Steelers a little, but down the line, I think I'll be pretty close because this team just can't stay healthy.

Baltimore: (2-1, 1-2) I had no respect for the Ravens coming into the season. I felt like the defense was old and falling apart, and the offense was inept. Well, the offense is pretty inept, but the defense still looks pretty tough.

Cleveland: (1-3, 2-2) I clearly overestimated the Browns. It's not showing too much yet, but it will soon.

Cincinnati: (0-4, 0-4) Everyone told me I was a fool for picking them to win 2 games. Not looking so foolish at the quarter pole.


Tennessee: (4-0, 2-2) I knew the Titans would have a good defense, and I didn't trust Vince Young and their offense one bit, thus constituting my 7-9 pick. Well...the Titans have an outstanding defense, and Vince Young is out of the picture. Take notice NFL. The Titans are here.

Jacksonville: (2-2, 3-1) Jacksonville had a ton of injuries to start the season. Had I known that, I may have given them one less win, probably not, but maybe. They're going to turn it up I think, and, while reaching my pick of 12-4 seems unlikely, I still think they'll be right there at the end.

Indianapolis: (1-2, 2-1) Wouldn't you know it. The one game I said they'd lose in the opening three is the one game they've won. Ridiculous. This team is in trouble, and I'd be surprised if they get double digit wins.

Houston: (0-3, 1-2) I assumed this team would be much improved and hungry for wins. They may have shown me that in the close loss to Jacksonville last week. As for the 9 wins I predicted...fuhgedaboutit


Denver: (3-1, 3-1) The pick is right, though I'd have never picked them to loss to KC. I said they'd fall to a team that had them beat anyway, San Diego. Either way, the offense is impressive, while the defense is atrocious. 10 wins is still likely though.

San Diego: (2-2, 4-0) My Super Bowl champs lost more games in the first two weeks of the season than I said they would all year. Oi vey...They have looked pretty good the last couple weeks, though, and I'm not ready to jump off the bandwagon yet.

Oakland: (1-3, 1-3) I'm not too bad in this division. I've picked every game right so far for Da Raidas, but from what I've seen so far, I won't be surprised if they won't get the 6 wins I promised.

Kansas City: (1-3, 0-4) I knew they'd be bad, but they had an inspired performance last week that I never would've seen coming. Either way, I said they'd win 5, but I'd be surprised at this point if they win 4.

Playoff Picture:

My preseason picks in order were:

1. San Diego 2. New England 3. Jacksonville 4. Pittsburgh 5. Indy 6. Denver

Right now:

1. Tennessee 2. Buffalo 3. Pittsburgh 4. Denver 5. New England 6. Baltimore

All I'll say is Wow...Let's see how close this looks at the end of the year.



New York Giants: (3-0, 2-1) The Giants have been very very impressive this season. I didn't think they'd be really tough without all of the studs they lost on the D-Line, but they're doing work in the trenches and everywhere else. Job well done so far.

Washington: (3-1, 1-3) Wouldn't you know it. I've picked all four games wrong for Washington so far. Skins fans better hope that trend doesn't continue because I had them picking up the pace and finishing 10-6.

Dallas: (3-1, 3-1) Right record, wrong loss. Oh well. The Cowboys are a great team, but they appear headed closer to my 11-5 prediction instead of something better unless they shore up that defense.

Philadelphia: (2-2, 3-1) Didn't foresee a loss to Chicago. Everything else is in check. I just want to say, if there has ever been a better last place team, I would want to know who it is. This team could win in the playoffs, and may not even get there.


Green Bay: (2-2, 2-2) Well, I said they'd lose to Tampa Bay, so that was a good call, and my realistic expectations are paying off as of right now. I was wrong about why they'd struggle though. I thought Aaron Rodgers would struggle. Instead, it's been Ryan Grant. I hope he's not a one hit wonder because it would be a shame.

Chicago: (2-2, 0-4) Guess who was wrong about Da Bears?? This guy. The defense is back, and I didn't think it would be. If they just had an offense they could make a run like they did a couple years ago. For now, they're gonna put some heat on the Pack while Rodgers tries to recover.

Minnesota: (1-3, 3-1) Don't mind me. Just my other Super Bowl pick drifting off into oblivion. I've picked every game wrong for the Vikes this year, and being a Green Bay guy, I hope that trend keeps up.

Detroit: (0-3, 2-1) Was it that unrealistic that the Lions knocked off the 49ers on the road?? It was?? Oh...okay...


Carolina: (3-1, 2-2) Not bad with the Panthers. They look to be on a pretty good track toward 10-6 and the division title I promised them.

Tampa Bay: (3-1, 3-1) Look at that. I've picked every game right this season for the Buccos. I guess Jon Gruden just likes to prove that you really don't need a good quarterback to win.

New Orleans: (2-2, 3-1) I had a little too much confidence in the Saints' defense. Boy was that a mistake. If that unit doesn't pull it together, and fast, NOLa has no shot at 10-6. On another note, Drew Brees is amazing.

Atlanta: (2-2, 2-2) The internet world asks, "You actually thought Atlanta would win of its first four??" To which I reply, ever heard of Michael "The Burner" Turner?? I rest my case.


Arizona: (2-2, 2-2) Not bad, not bad. I decided to jump off the "This is Arizona's year" bandwagon this year, and it looks like it was a good choice. They're not great, but the thing is, no one in that division is. Here's the challenge. Can they hold true to my prediction and win 1 of their final 12 games??

San Francisco: (2-2, 0-4) I said the Niners would tie the Bengals as the worst team in the NFL this season. Doesn't look like it's going to happen because they have some young talent that's playing hard out in the Bay Area. J.T. O'Sullivan for Governator??

Seattle: (1-2, 3-0) I figured they'd coast through this schedule to take the number one seed in the NFC even though they're clearly not the best team. Well...I'm not sure they'll even win the division. They've been terrible.

St. Louis: (0-4, 1-3) I predicted they'd win 4. Unless Jim Haslett has some magic up his sleeve, this team will not win four games. Period.

Playoff Picture:

My preseason picks in order were:

1. Seattle 2. Dallas 3. Minnesota 4. New Orleans 5. Philadelphia 6. Green Bay

Right now:

1. New York Giants 2. Carolina 3. Green Bay 4. Arizona 5. Washington 6. Dallas

Even worse than the AFC. Out of my preseason 12 postseason picks, 5 would be in if the season ended today, and 7 of last year's 12 would be in. The NFL is a crazy world. I'll check in in the same sort of way after Week Eight.